Large storm surges lashed the northeastern Caribbean on Saturday as Lee continued to move through nearby open waters as a Category 3 hurricane.
The hurricane, which is not expected to make landfall, was about 565 kilometers (350 miles) east-northeast of the northern Windward Islands early Saturday. It had maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour (115 miles per hour) and was moving in a west-northwest direction at 19km/h (12 mph).
Earlier this week, Lee went from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 5 in just one day due to warm water and low winds.
Further strengthening of the storm is forecast on Sunday and Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It is expected to pass well north of the northeastern Caribbean, a great relief for the population from the British Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico, which has not yet fully recovered from the passage of hurricanes Irma and María in September 2017.
Don’t underestimate Lee
“We are concerned that people are underestimating the impacts of this passing storm,” said Coast Guard Capt. José Díaz of the San Juan Sector, Puerto Rico. “The projected surge increase of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4 meters) severely reduces our ability to respond to a maritime hazard with all of our resources.”
Tropical storm conditions were not expected on any island in the region, but waves up to 5 meters (15 feet) high are expected in Puerto Rico and nearby territories, and authorities warned people to stay away from the sea.
The National Hurricane Center said seas near the center are expected to reach a maximum of 14 meters (45 feet). Much of the U.S. East Coast could be hit by dangerous surf and rip currents starting Sunday, but the full impact of the storm was unknown at this time, he added.
Lee could maintain its category next week and could turn north on Wednesday, but its subsequent trajectory remains unclear yet.
Overnight Thursday, Lee broke the standard for what meteorologists call rapid intensification: when a hurricane’s sustained winds increase 35 mph (56 kph) in 24 hours.
So experts see Lee could be a dire harbinger of things to come as ocean temperatures rise, generating large, fast-growing hurricanes that could threaten communities further north and further inland, experts say.
“Hurricanes are getting stronger at higher latitudes,” said Marshall Shepherd, director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia and former president of the American Meteorological Society. “If that trend continues, places like Washington, D.C., New York and Boston will come into play.”
“Hyperintensification” of hurricanes
As the oceans warm as a result of climate change, they act as fuel for hurricanes.
“That extra heat comes back at some point, and one of the ways it does that is through stronger hurricanes (…) This one increased by 80 mph,” Shepherd said.
“I can’t emphasize this enough: We used to have this metric of 35 mph, and here’s a storm that reached twice that speed and we’re seeing that happen more frequently,” said Shepherd, who describes what happened as “hyperintensification.” “
With superwarm ocean temperatures and low wind shear, “all the stars were aligned for it to intensify quickly,” said Kerry Emanuel, professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Inland threats
Category 5 status, when sustained winds are at least 157 mph or 253 kph, is quite rare. Only about 4.5% of named storms in the Atlantic Ocean have reached Category 5 in the last decade, said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane scientist and researcher at the University of Miami.
High-intensity hurricanes also threaten communities further inland, as monster storms can become so powerful that they remain dangerous hurricanes over longer distances over land.
“I think it’s a story that’s not told enough,” Shepherd said. “Because these storms are strong and come ashore, in some cases they move fast enough to remain hurricanes inland.”
It then crashed into the Georgia city of Valdosta, more than 70 miles (116 kilometers) from where it made landfall. At least 80 homes in the Valdosta area were destroyed and hundreds more were damaged.
In 2018, Hurricane Michael cut a similar path of destruction inland, destroying cotton crops and pecan trees and causing widespread damage across southern Georgia.
An increasing risk for the northeastern United States
While it is too early to know how close Lee could come to the US East Coast, New Englanders are keeping an eye on the storm, as some models have projected it to come dangerously close to that region, particularly Maine.
“If Lee really makes landfall in New England, there’s no question that storm surge would be a huge threat,” he said.
It has been 69 years since a major hurricane made landfall in New England, McNoldy said.
On Sept. 8, 1869, a Category 3 hurricane known as “the September Gale of 1869” hit Rhode Island, the National Weather Service in Boston said Friday. The storm cut all telegraph lines between Boston and New York and capsized a schooner, killing 11 crew members.
The “monstrous” waves associated with the hurricane
As Lee churns up the ocean as it approaches the US East Coast, it could cause high seas and rip currents along the entire East Coast.
“What we’re going to see from Lee – and we’re very confident – is that it’s going to be a major wave producer,” Mike Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a briefing Friday.
“This morning, the height of the highest wave we were looking at at Lee was between 45 and 50 feet, and the highest waves could even be twice that,” Brennan said. “So we could be looking at 80- to 90-foot waves associated with Lee.”
Emanuel was tracking the storm this weekend in New Harbor, Maine. Since it has been so long for any type of hurricane warning in New England, some residents might become complacent and think hurricanes are a Florida or Louisiana problem, she said.
The curious and dangerous confluence of two hurricanes
Forecasters will be watching for any possible interactions in the coming days between Lee and the newly formed Tropical Storm Margot, which is expected to become a hurricane next week.
It’s possible that Margot could alter Lee’s path, though it’s too early to tell if that will happen, experts say.
Margot is far east of Lee, but as Margot strengthens, it could affect the region’s weather systems that drive hurricanes.
A phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect, the “dance” that occurs when two tropical storms spin around each other, could occur, although that doesn’t mean it will happen in this case, Emanuel said.
However, if this happens, the two storms could push each other in the Atlantic, which could alter their tracks.
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4/11
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7/11
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Hurricane Lee could head near NY and cause rain and storm surge
2023-09-09 21:04:00
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