But that is about to change, as large numbers of analysts, observers, experts, environmental activists and executives expect a dramatic change with the growing popularity of battery electric cars.
In fact, the use of electricity is not only an ecological goal supported by a large number of activists around the world, but rather an ambition that would help fight climate change by giving up fossil fuels (extracted from the soil such as coal, gas, and oil), which produces a large number of greenhouse gas emissions, and is also an economic target and a lucrative business reality, according to many experts.
With fossil fuel prices rising to record highs due to the geopolitical conditions prevailing around the world – not least the Russo-Ukrainian war which has led to unprecedented increases in energy prices, as the price of a barrel of oil has reached more than $ 100 – the call for the use of clean energy sources has increased, from wind energy, electricity, etc.
In addition to the calls of environmentalists to turn to these alternative sources, and the call of many cities and countries to use electric cars as an alternative to fuel-powered cars. The French city of Paris, for example, has announced it will ban everything on its roads except electric vehicles by 2030.
The US state of California (the largest US auto market) has followed suit, which plans to completely ban the sale of gasoline-powered cars by 2035, the New York Times recently reported.
There are countries that are moving almost completely towards electric cars, such as Norway, where the sales of these cars accounted for 75% in 2020, which is the highest percentage in the world, and the percentage of sales is expected to of electric cars will increase to 100% by 2025.
According to a new study by Presidency Research, the global electric vehicle market is projected to reach USD 208.58 billion by the end of 2022. The global market size for electric vehicles is estimated at USD 170 billion in 2021 and it is projected to will reach more than $1,103.17 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.1% over this period.
The biggest revolution in the world of the automotive industry
Indeed, we are in the midst of the greatest revolution in the automotive world since Henry Ford started the first automobile production line in 1913, and the transition is likely to happen much faster than we imagine, and many industry observers believe that we have already passed the tipping point, as it will excel Sales of electric cars are much faster than sales of petrol and diesel cars, according to forecasts.
Against this backdrop, the world’s largest automakers are planning to completely transform the electric vehicle industry. Jaguar, for example, has announced it will only sell electric vehicles from 2025, Volvo from 2030, and British sports car company Lotus has said it will follow suit, selling only electric models, from 2028.
Countries and major automakers around the world are racing to produce and develop better and more durable electric cars than their predecessors, and it’s not limited to one model; Each company announces plans to produce different types of these vehicles.
General Motors (GM) has announced its commitment to invest an additional $7 billion to fund electric and self-driving vehicle programs and will launch 30 new electric vehicle models globally by 2025.
As for the South Korean company Hyundai, it has pledged to produce 23 new types of these cars in the same period, as well as Mercedes, Toyota and the rest of the companies that are in a feverish race to capture future markets.
There are even new up and coming companies – like Riffian and Payton – entering the market every day and working to develop their own electric cars, and why not? The market is very promising and the race towards the future never stops.
And the website “car and driver” has been tracking a list of all the electric cars expected to hit the world’s roads in the next five years, including extravagant and expensive cars, priced at over $3 million, and among these are “popular” cars, the price of which will be within reach.
Will fossil fuel cars disappear completely, to be replaced by electric cars? And if this is the case, should we imagine the (used) “mountains of scrap” that will be crowded with petrol cars, and that they will no longer have room in the next few years?
This can happen and all electric cars will be replaced with petrol and diesel, an option favored by environmental activists and a number of lawmakers in America and Europe who are pushing for the abolition of the use of carbon-producing vehicles within a decade.
Writer Dan Neal says – in an article in the Wall Street Journal – that consumer choices could be the driver of all this. “Electric vehicles are better cars than the cars they replace,” he explains, which is why consumers might choose to replace their gasoline-powered vehicles with electric vehicles early.
“Just like old plasma TVs, consumers have quickly replaced them with LCD screens, which are much cheaper and better,” she explains.
But others are more skeptical of the accelerated timetable and expect both vehicle types to coexist on the road for a long time.
“The average life of a vehicle on the road today is about 12 years in the United States, and even if 100% of cars sold were electric as of today, it would take 20 to 25 years to replace the entire fleet with electric vehicles,” says Navigent analyst Apal Samed. This according to what was quoted by the “NBR” platform in a recent report.
SAE editor-in-chief Bill Visnick was even more blunt: “Gasoline-powered vehicles are going to be around for a long time.”
Mary Nichols, who chairs the California Air Resources Board, agrees that internal combustion engines “aren’t going away anytime soon, gasoline-powered cars will be on the road, we’re not going to museums any time soon” and says modern gasoline-powered cars are ” cleaner” than before. In the previous.
He says: “I’ve been working in the field of air pollution control since 1971 and emissions from internal combustion engines have been reduced by more than 90% and this is important for air quality, as improving efficiency of fuel combustion has reduced the amount of each car’s contribution to climate change.” According to the previous source.
For his part, engineer David Richmuth (expert in the fuel car sector) underlines the importance of setting strict standards for conventional vehicles to ensure that they do not pollute the environment, emphasizing that “in the next five years we will sell a huge amount of vehicles running on petrol and diesel, and meeting these standards will avoid a large amount of emissions.
Another aspect when thinking about the future of combustion engines is related to hybrid cars that run on electricity and fuel together. It’s “the rise of the plug-in hybrid that can use fuel,” which means the internal combustion engine isn’t going away for the foreseeable future, Richmuth explains.
That said, the transformation of the auto industry is real and happening much faster than skeptics would have predicted just a few years ago, but the end of gasoline cars is still early and will take some time, if ultimately inevitable; The wheel of development cannot be stopped. The real question is how quickly do we get to that point where petrol cars are museums? This is what we will know in the coming years “Al-Jazeera”
