Arenado’s Stunning Return: A Cardinals Offseason Saga

The St. Louis Cardinals‘ annual holiday party at Busch Stadium held a palpable air of anticipation. The Friday after the winter Meetings, the same day the Houston Astros traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, a seismic shift in the baseball landscape was brewing. Whispers circulated: the astros were emerging as serious contenders for Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals’ top offseason acquisition target.

The Cardinals, seemingly on the verge of a deal, were poised to land Arenado, a feat that would have checked off their most meaningful offseason goal. A source described the situation as being “on the 1-yard line.” Yet, the surreal image of Arenado returning to Cardinals camp in late January, greeted with hugs in the parking lot, paints a drastically different picture. “Here we are,” Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak stated in late January, “Things happen.”

nolan Arenado’s list of acceptable trade destinations, according to multiple sources, included the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Padres, and Astros.The astros’ pursuit, however, ultimately faltered due to an unforeseen obstacle: Arenado himself. Multiple industry sources revealed Arenado’s uncertainty regarding the deal’s timing and the Astros’ trajectory. The loss of Tucker and the impending free agency of Alex Bregman prompted Arenado to reconsider. He sought more time, sources indicated, and while not definitively rejecting the Astros, he refused to rush a decision.

Negotiations with othre teams never progressed considerably. The Cardinals engaged in discussions with at least nine organizations, including the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and los Angeles Angels, but these conversations proved fruitless. The Boston Red Sox emerged as a potential suitor until their signing of Bregman days before position players reported to spring training.

With no viable options,Arenado trade talks stalled. The eight-time All-Star, intent on joining a World Series contender, found himself back at third base for a Cardinals team embarking on a youth movement after an 83-79 season.“It’s not awkward for my teammates and my coaches,” arenado, 33, told local reporters upon his return to camp. “And to be honest with you, it’s not really awkward with the front office. They have a job to do and I have a job to do.”

The Cardinals’ pursuit of an Arenado trade began even before the 2024 season concluded. during the team’s final road trip, a six-game swing through Colorado and San Francisco, Mozeliak traveled to Denver to lay the groundwork for a significant roster overhaul. He planned an end-of-season press conference to announce these changes but first met with several players,including Arenado.

In Denver, the city where Arenado’s career began and where he was later traded from, Mozeliak informed Arenado of the Cardinals’ shift towards a youth movement. Recognizing this didn’t align with Arenado’s aspirations—especially after declining his opt-out clause after the 2022 season—Mozeliak proposed exploring a trade. Both Arenado and Mozeliak had to agree on the terms of any potential trade.

Arenado stipulated that any trade would have to be to a team positioned to contend for a World Series or planning to do so in the near future. This eliminated the Tigers, Royals, and Angels from consideration. However, as news of the cardinals’ willingness to trade Arenado spread, more teams expressed interest. Arenado provided Mozeliak with a list of five teams—the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, new York Yankees, San Diego Padres, and Houston Astros—for which he would waive his no-trade clause. He also indicated a willingness to move to first base or reduce his time at third base to facilitate a trade.

the Dodgers, however, committed to Max Muncy at third base, and the Padres already had Manny Machado locked in for the long term. The Yankees were focused on acquiring Juan Soto, and the Red Sox prioritized bolstering their pitching rotation. The Astros were grappling with decisions regarding tucker and Bregman. While Arenado’s market wasn’t initially a top priority for these teams, Mozeliak remained confident that would change once their immediate needs were addressed.

The Cardinals’ desire to clear roster space for younger players and reduce payroll, citing uncertainty over their television deal and projected gate revenue decline, further complicated matters. They were unwilling to absorb a significant portion of Arenado’s remaining $74 million over three years (with the Rockies responsible for $10 million). Mozeliak needed a deal that minimized the Cardinals’ financial burden.

Despite the short timeframe, mozeliak expressed confidence that a trade partner would emerge by the Winter Meetings. His optimism grew throughout the week, with Mozeliak stating, “it’s my intention to try,” when asked about trading Arenado.Though, the Winter Meetings concluded without any apparent progress on the Arenado front.

Behind the scenes, a deal with the Astros was taking shape. The framework involved Houston covering most of Arenado’s remaining salary, with the Cardinals paying approximately $15 million—about 25 percent—over three years. This satisfied the Cardinals’ payroll reduction goals. The Astros, facing payroll and farm system concerns, saw Arenado as a cost-effective replacement for Bregman.

Both teams believed the trade would address their pressing needs, and they pushed for a swift resolution.The only remaining hurdle was Arenado’s approval, which Mozeliak didn’t anticipate being an issue. Though,Arenado developed second thoughts,prompting Mozeliak to give him the weekend to decide. By Monday, Arenado remained undecided, expressing openness to future discussions but needing more time to assess his market and the impact of Bregman’s free agency. he also prioritized his family’s well-being.

Both Mozeliak and Astros general manager Dana Brown grew impatient, but the Astros remained optimistic. The following day, Arenado informed Mozeliak that he would not waive his full no-trade clause to join Houston, at least not instantly. He remained open to future conversations but understood the Astros might pivot, effectively ending negotiations. The Astros later signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal, leaving Mozeliak to return to the drawing board and lament the timing of the Tucker trade. “I was a little surprised,” Mozeliak said in January regarding Arenado’s decision. “Looking back at that, when tucker was traded it was almost like order of operations. Had we been ahead of that?”

mozeliak and Arenado did not speak directly for several weeks, both frustrated by the failed Astros trade. Mozeliak maintained contact with Arenado’s agent,Joel Wolfe. Arenado’s fate hinged on Bregman’s free agency decision, which proved protracted. Other teams, including the Seattle Mariners, expressed interest, but Arenado reportedly favored the Red Sox.

The Red Sox, however, were heavily pursuing Bregman. While keeping tabs on Arenado, they prioritized Bregman, who also reportedly preferred Boston but sought a five-to-six-year deal, which the Red Sox weren’t offering. Mozeliak remained in contact with Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, and the Red Sox’s interest in Arenado increased as their chances of signing Bregman diminished.

As spring training approached, Bregman’s market heated up. Reports suggested the Detroit Tigers offered him a six-year, $171 million contract with an opt-out after 2026, while the Cubs offered a four-year, $115 million deal.However, the Red Sox ultimately secured bregman with a three-year, $120 million deal, effectively ending Arenado’s trade prospects.

With all five teams on Arenado’s list tired, the Cardinals were left to bring Arenado back. He reported to spring training and was greeted by manager Oli Marmol with a hug. He met with Mozeliak, and they discussed moving forward professionally. While a trade remains possible, it would require significant concessions or a drastic change in operations from one of the five teams on Arenado’s list.