Andreas Tschiesner is Senior Partner and Head of Europe for the Automotive division (450 employees) at McKinsey. The European car companies are his customers – with them he develops scenarios for the future.
COURIER: Mr. Tschiesner, what will happen to the car companies as we know them?
Andreas Tschiesner: I think they will have a very disruptive future. Today the automotive world is clear: 15 major manufacturers share the market. There will continue to be a certain number of manufacturers who create the change. In the next 10 years we expect a strong dynamic with new car manufacturers like Lucid Nio or Fisker. Then there are the big technology and internet companies like Apple, Alphabet, Uber or Alibaba from China. These providers will primarily offer mobility services.
So there is a lot of market movement.
Yes, we are at the beginning of this future. The auto industry was once very constant. Technologically, something has gone further, but it was always the same people who ensured the innovative strength.
Now there are new topics. Almost looks like the car companies are surprised.
Not in terms of the topics, but in terms of speed. It’s new how investors are investing in new players right now. The capital market invests fully in risk, it is a bet on future options and profit pools. Apparently, this is currently much more attractive than investing in existing market participants. This radicalism and speed is surprising.
How difficult are the car manufacturers with the change in their business fields?
I think the auto companies fully embraced that. The strict guidelines are there and the industry has incorporated this turning point into their plans. The upheavals towards a software-driven industry are more difficult for the corporations. Because you have to change a lot and rethink completely. It is no longer about 80 control units in the car, but about software. It can be a disadvantage if you come with a 100-year history.
How much is Tesla doing here?
When it comes to software, many corporations are definitely too slow. Tesla is completely different and trend-setting. Elon Musk’s innovative strength is unique here and Tesla is certainly the pacemaker in this field.
A template for conventional auto companies?
That will not do. Tesla does a lot in its own value creation. I see partnerships between car companies and tech companies in the future.
What exactly are you brought in as a consultant?
For a picture of the future, for the vision of where you want to be in five or ten years. All board members in the car companies have a clear vision. But mobilizing the organization, that is where the difficulty lies. An example: It’s no longer about combustion engines, but about battery chemistry. Thousands of engineers will have to be re-qualified.
These are massive cuts in the workforce.
This is a huge topic with great differences. Much social development has gone hand in hand with the well-paid workers – for people and entire regions. Now it boils down to the fact that in the future fewer and, because of a different technology, partly different staff will be required. Fewer internal combustion engine developers, more software engineers.
Is electric drive the future for you too?
We know: The future is emission-free. Most of the development money goes into the battery drive. However, there must and should be technology openness. The fuel cell is certainly an issue for large vehicles and especially for commercial vehicles. I believe there will be a coexistence between electric vehicles and hydrogen drives.
Although electric cars still need optimization.
We compare electric cars with technology that has been optimized for 120 years. It’s not entirely fair. The solid-state battery will come in the second half of the 2020s, which will provide 30 to 40 percent more range. There will be new developments in terms of durability, efficiency and sustainability.
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