Cancer Rates Expected to Double Globally in Next 25 Years, Says World Health Organization
The World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has predicted that cancer rates will nearly double worldwide in the next quarter-century. This alarming projection is fueled by factors such as aging, obesity, and tobacco and alcohol use. In 2022, approximately 20 million cases of cancer were diagnosed globally, a significant increase from the 18 million cases in 2020. The IARC expects this number to rise by 77% to 35 million by 2050.
Disproportionate Increase in Cancer Rates
While highly developed countries will experience the greatest absolute increase in cancer cases over the next 25 years, countries with lower levels of development will face a disproportionate increase in cancer rates. This could potentially put a greater burden on their health systems. The IARC projects a 142% increase in cancer rates for low-level development countries, compared to a 99% increase for medium-level development countries between now and 2050.
Dr. Freddie Bray, head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC, emphasizes that the impact of this increase will not be evenly felt across countries of different development levels. Those with fewer resources to manage their cancer burdens will bear the brunt of the global cancer burden.
Disparities in Cancer Treatment Outcomes
Although progress has been made in early cancer detection and treatment, significant disparities in cancer treatment outcomes still exist. These disparities not only exist between high- and low-income regions but also within countries themselves. Dr. Cary Adams, head of the international NGO Union for International Cancer Control, highlights that where someone lives should not determine whether they live or not. She emphasizes that this is not just a resource issue but also a matter of political will.
Lung and Breast Cancers Remain Top Concerns
Lung cancer and female breast cancer have been in a close race for global supremacy. In 2020, breast cancer surpassed lung cancer for the first time. However, this trend reversed itself in 2022. Persistent tobacco use in Asia contributed to global lung cancer diagnosis rates surpassing female breast cancer.
The most commonly diagnosed cancers in the world in 2022 were lung cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, and stomach cancer. While lung cancer diagnoses slightly surpassed those of breast cancer in 2022, breast cancer remained the most common cause of cancer when considering both genders in the majority of countries.
Breast cancer remained the most commonly diagnosed cancer in women globally in 2022 and the leading cause of cancer death. Lung and colorectal cancers were the second and third most common types of cancer diagnosed in women and causes of cancer deaths, respectively. For men, lung cancer was the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death globally in 2022, followed by liver and colorectal cancers.
Lung cancer was not only the most commonly diagnosed cancer but also the deadliest cancer in both 2020 and 2022. It caused the highest number of deaths, followed by colorectal and liver cancers.
Record High Cancer Deaths Expected in the U.S.
The release of these global statistics coincides with the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) 2024 cancer forecast. The ACS anticipates new cancer diagnoses to surpass 2 million for the first time this year in the United States. Certain types of cancers, including colorectal cancer in people younger than 55 years of age, liver cancer in women, and cervical cancer in women ages 30 through 44, are on the rise.
Six types of cancer associated with excess body weight are also increasing in diagnosis rates: endometrial, liver, kidney, pancreas, colorectal, and breast cancers. Of particular concern is the decreasing age of the average cancer patient. In 1995, 61% of cancer diagnoses were among those aged 65 and older. By 2020, that proportion had dropped to 58%. Meanwhile, cancer rates among middle-aged and younger adults are rising.
Colorectal cancer diagnoses, in particular, are trending upward among younger adults. It has become the leading cause of cancer death for men and the second leading cause for women in this age group. Lifestyle factors such as obesity, high consumption of processed meat and alcohol, low levels of physical activity and fiber consumption, and smoking are believed to be contributing to this change.
Italian researchers also support this conclusion in a study published in the Annals of Oncology. They assert that obesity and alcohol consumption are contributing to the rising death toll of colorectal cancer among young adults. Their report predicts a rise in bowel cancer deaths among Millennials and Gen Xers aged 25-49 in some European countries for the first time.
Conclusion
The projected doubling of cancer rates globally in the next 25 years is a cause for concern. Factors such as aging, obesity, and tobacco and alcohol use contribute to this increase. While highly developed countries will experience an absolute
