Usually, May 9 is marked – called victory day in Russia due to the triumph over the Germans during the Second World War – with grand parades all over the country, with a large turnout of military personnel and a display of the arsenal of weapons.
But last week it became known that the marking is canceled in the cities of Kursk and Belgorod, which are close to the Ukrainian border, in addition to the annexed Crimean Peninsula.
Fear “terror”
The reason is fear of “terrorist attacks”, and a desire to avoid “provoking the enemy with a large number of vehicles and soldiers”, according to Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, reports the TV channel RBK.
BIG DAY: Victory Day is Russia’s biggest non-religious holiday. Here from Moscow last year. Photo: AP
sea view
President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov has assured that the main parade on Red Square in Moscow will go ahead as planned. Equally, Putin is now being ridiculed from various quarters – mainly Western or Ukrainian – for the cancellations, writes Newsweek.
– There is nothing that screams “great strategist” as loudly as not having enough soldiers and equipment to hold an annual parade, writes Mark Hertling, former commanding general of US forces in Europe, sarcastically on Twitter.
– You can have nothing but compassion for a guy who doesn’t have enough tanks for a military parade because they are blown up in a country he has invaded, writes veteran Randy Bryce.
Business Ukraine Magazine tweets that “the Tsar is naked”:
– Vladimir Putin expected to defeat Ukraine in just three days. 14 months later, he is now forced to cancel his beloved Victory Day parade in several Russian cities, for fear of Ukrainian attacks.
– Sensitive
British military intelligencewhich provides daily analyzes of the war in Ukraine, noticed on Thursday that the further from Ukraine the Russian cities are, the more likely it is that they will hold the Victory Day parade as planned.
The British also believe that the special situation puts the spotlight on “a sensitive communication challenge” for the Kremlin:
– Putin promotes “the military special operation” in terms that evoke the spirit of the Soviets’ experiences in the Second World War. There is a risk that the message sounds more and more uncomfortable for the many Russians who have direct insight into the mishandled campaign in Ukraine, which is about to fail, they write, and elaborate:
– Honoring the fallen from previous generations can quickly turn out to slip into clarifying the extent of recent losses, which the Kremlin is trying to cover up.
– Serious problems
Peter Dickinson of the American think tank Atlantic Council highlights the significance of Victory Day for the Russian national identity. Compared to the associations the anniversary creates with the war in Ukraine, the cancellations become “extra embarrassing”.
– Other public anniversaries can be postponed or canceled without much fuss, but not marking Victory Day points to serious problems that can hardly be covered up, even in Russia’s strictly controlled information reality, he writes.
Mikhail Trotsky, professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, believes the Russians’ main problem is not getting enough weapons for the parades. The real danger is the risk of Ukrainian attacks with drones, short-range missiles or artillery during the events.
COULD BE THREATENED: The Moscow commemoration of 9 May could be in danger if Putin finds himself forced to mobilize again, says the professor. Photo: Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP / NTB
sea view
– Far more interesting and telling is what the Kremlin decides about the Victory Day parade in Moscow, the professor emphasizes to Newsweek.
– Depends on offensive
Trotsky further believes that the Russians’ attitude to the parade in the capital may change if the Ukrainians launch a major counter-offensive before 9 May. It could provoke Putin to resume mass mobilization or to introduce a state of emergency if the situation on the battlefield becomes unsustainable.
– Cancellation of the Victory Day commemoration in Moscow becomes likely if a state of emergency is already in place by May 9 and Russian citizens are rounded up in large numbers and sent to fight against Ukraine, he says.
In that case, it is conceivable that the Kremlin announces a “postponement” of the 9 May parade until a victory in Russia’s “new war” – the one against Ukraine – is in the works, Trotsky believes.
