Canada, brace yourself for big pressure. The new Trump administration is likely to pressure the country on several fronts, including trade, migration and military spending.
The repercussions of Donald Trump‘s election will ripple internationally through his plans to completely eliminate tariffs, deport immigrants in large numbers and put greater pressure on countries to spend more on their own defense.
The most important tenet of Trump’s political career is that the United States must take a hard line against allies who have become too dependent on the United States, both economically and militarily.
And as you can see, few countries are as dependent as Canada. Washington think tank report He said the northern neighbor risks becoming one of the countries hardest hit by Trump’s plan to impose global tariffs of at least 10%.
Still-undefined details of his plan have prompted varying estimates of the potential damage to the Canadian economy, ranging from less than 0.5 per cent of GDP to eye-watering. 5 percent.
President Trump remembered ‘tariff’ as ‘the most beautiful word in the dictionary’ and made it clear that he would impose a fee of at least 10% on all imported goods.
Canadian officials have spent months trying to get clarity from Trump associates about whether the country could be exempt. They did not receive any guarantees.
Donald Trump was spotted with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the NATO roundtable in December 2019. (Frank Augustin/AP Photo)
One scenario some trade observers have envisioned is for President Trump to quickly announce tariffs on everything early next year and then use that as leverage to force other countries to change course on certain policies.
That means Canada faces an intense year ahead in the bilateral relationship.
It feels like deja vu
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sought to set a positive tone Wednesday, congratulating Trump on his victory and calling the friendship between Canada and the United States the envy of the world.
“President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity and security for both our countries,” Trudeau said.
But for Canadian veterans of the trade war with the first Trump administration, there’s a sense of déjà vu.
Flavio Volpe, head of the Canadian Auto Parts Lobby Association, referring to Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel, said, “You’re welcome back to a government that has imposed national security tariffs on Canadian aluminum purchased by its own military in a way that no one can understand.” “You are welcome,” he said. And aluminum.
Volpe expressed hope that Canada working with the United States to block Chinese imports could create common ground between the two countries.
But the biggest change in Trump’s first term is that he is now talking about imposing tariffs on everything, everywhere, and describing the move as a strategy to force manufacturers to produce in the United States.
City Hall | Donald Trump ‘made history’ as he declared election victory to supporters.
video-item-title">Donald Trump ‘made history’ by claiming political victory to supporters
Republican Donald Trump claimed a “grand victory” after winning several key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, telling supporters they were part of “the greatest political movement in history.”
Ottawa is expected to attempt to negotiate tariff exemptions and threaten retaliation if that fails. Canada’s ambassador to Washington has already think openly About the possibility of response.
This risks ultimately plunging Canada into a painful trade war with its powerful neighbor.
A recent report from TD Economics was more optimistic that President Trump’s full use of tariffs will be a bargaining chip to force Canada to make concessions when it comes time to renegotiate CUSMA, the trade agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico. . 2026.
defense spending problem
It’s not just Canadian trade that could be affected by Trump. Military spending is another possible flashpoint.
Elbridge Colby, a potentially important figure in the incoming Trump administration. told CBC News This year, he will call for Ottawa to use unprecedented tools such as economic punishment as a stick to prod it to expand its contributions.
There will be pressure to spend more and faster, especially in the Arctic.
Washington has not relented on the Trudeau government’s recent pledge to meet its historic military spending target of 2 percent of GDP. This was explained next. Recent Comments These are the words of a powerful Republican who derides Canada as the biggest threat to NATO.
At a rally in South Carolina earlier this year, Trump said the United States would not protect allies who fail to meet the 2 percent goal.
City Hall | David Frum says we may be on the verge of a global trade war.:
video-item-title">FRUM: “If Trump wins, we may be in the midst of a global trade war.”
David Frum, a staff writer at The Atlantic and former President George W. Bush’s speechwriter, said Donald Trump could “ruin” the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement and hold those countries “to ransom” for something. I believe there is. he wants He also suggested that Trump might stop arms to Ukraine and pay for war with Russia.
Immigration is another question mark for Canada.
Trump has promised mass deportations of millions of people who entered the U.S. illegally. Fear of deportation could lead to a surge in asylum seekers seeking refuge at the Canadian border, one analyst said.
“Individuals may try to flee to Canada to avoid deportation,” Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, told CBC News last week. “So we could fight about that.”
This could worsen tensions in Canada. Ottawa is already under pressure from provincial governments to curb immigration levels.
Just last month, the Trudeau government announced immigration cuts to ease pressure on the housing market. Trump noticed this and posted the following: social media: “Even Justin Trudeau wants to close Canada’s borders.”
Kelly Craft, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada, told Radio-Canada that Trump plans to continue his policies from 2016. ‘Look at the first four years. This is a good gauge of what will happen in the future.’ (Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press)
“We are the only ‘idiots’ who allow people, including hundreds of thousands of criminals, to freely enter the United States through our outrageous ‘open borders’ policy,” Trump said.
Signs of the potential ramifications the immigration issue could have within Canada quickly emerged.
The Quebec government hinted Wednesday that it would strengthen border security and deploy provincial personnel to the international border.
Francois Legault’s government faces a difficult re-election battle with the pro-independence Parti Québécois, which advocates immigration as its argument for separation.
