Ignorance and stupidity are the coronavirus’s best allies. The rising figures make new measures inevitable. Good information is one of them.
Almost all parameters that indicate how the corona epidemic is evolving in our country go into the red. Certainly with regard to the number of hospital admissions and deaths, this happens significantly slower than in the first wave, in mid-March. Fortunately, the measures currently in place are dampening the exponential growth that pushed the country into an unprecedented medical crisis nearly seven months ago.
Unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that we can reverse the trend with the current approach. “We have no arguments to think that the growth of the epidemic will stop without additional measures being taken,” says virologist, professor Marc Van Ranst (KU Leuven).
Infections
What virologists and other medical experts have been warning about for some time now seems to be becoming a reality: just like our neighboring countries the Netherlands and France, the corona virus has also found a second wind in Belgium.
The positivity ratio is increasing alarmingly: a tripling in barely a month
The number of positive tests was more than 3,000 a day several times in the past week. In the first month of school we saw about a tripling of the number of positive tests. More testing is only part of the explanation.
After all, the positivity ratio – the percentage that tests positive – is rising alarmingly. In the period from September 26 to October 2, the positivity ratio was 7.2%. A month earlier – in the period from August 28 to September 4 – that ratio was 2.4%. That is a tripling in barely a month.
Even if we take into account the fact that the selection of people to be tested can help determine the positivity ratio, the increase in the positivity ratio turns out to be far too great to be a coincidence. For months the percentage of positive tests fluctuated between 2 and 3%. The sharp rise is problematic and a clear indication that the epidemic is finding its second wind.
Ct value
The figures published by Het Laatste Nieuws yesterday (05/10) do not change that conclusion much. The newspaper was able to access data from the laboratory AZ Delta in Roeselare. This shows that last summer, when strict measures were announced in Antwerp in particular, a striking number of positive tests with a high so-called Ct value. This is an indication of the amount of viral load in the sample.
Virologist Marc Van Ranst: ‘Testing for the presence of antibodies would allow us to work more finely’
If the Ct value is high, then little virus is present. A low Ct value indicates a high presence of the virus.
The high level of tests with a high Ct value indicates, according to the newspaper, that many people tested positive, but in fact did not undergo a new infection. The hypersensitive test would have picked up traces of an old infection in which people tested positive, but would no longer have been infectious.
“Stating that high Ct values indicate an old infection is a bit too blunt,” says Marc Van Ranst. “Most laboratories also give a quantitative indication with the test. That tells something about whether there is a lot or little virus present. “
“Some of the people with a high Ct value will not be reactive, but a small proportion will. For example, it may be a sample that has not been properly collected and therefore has a very low presence of virus particles. In order to provide a definite answer, the sample must be inoculated into a cell culture to see whether the virus is multiplying or not. But that is not a standard procedure. ”
Another possibility is to check in parallel whether antibodies are present. After all, the presence of antibodies indicates that the infection has already been experienced. “That is one of the proposals that are currently before us,” says Marc Van Ranst. “It would allow us to work more closely.”
Hospitals
The findings of the laboratory in Roeselare date from last summer. In the meantime, the tests again show mainly low Ct values. This means that the presence of the virus has again been high in recent days and that an infection is therefore definitely at play.
This also translates into an increasing number of hospital admissions and an increased mortality rate. For the time being, the hospital problems are local, in Brussels. The UZ Brussel in particular indicates that the beds provided for patients with Covid-19 are filling.
Virologist Marc Van Ranst: ‘We have no arguments to think that the growth of the epidemic will stop without additional measures‘
Yet it is striking that there is no surprise like in the second half of March. In two weeks (between the ‘start’ of the epidemic on March 15 and the peak on March 28) the number of hospital admissions increased from 71 per day to 629 per day.
The past fourteen days – figures from September 21 to October 4 – also show an increase, but it was not exponentially, as was the case seven months ago: the number of hospital admissions rose from 58 to 86.
Various elements play a role in this. For example, the finding that today, despite a disturbing increase in the number of infected people over 90, mainly younger people are infected, while last spring’s epidemic took its deadly toll on residential care centers.
“The most important element is of course that we have measures that are well established today,” says Marc Van Ranst. “Think of keeping a sufficient distance or washing your hands regularly. In the period before March 15, that was not the case at all. ”
“The effects of the lockdown in mid-March are not visible in the graph until a few weeks later, when the curve capsizes and then slowly starts to fall. If we had not imposed any measures in recent months and behaved as we did in the weeks before the lockdown, we would be heading for a similar scenario, ”says Van Ranst.
Citizen Sense
Fortunately that is not the case, but at the same time there is no reason to think that the growth of the curve will be stopped if we do not change our behavior.
“The measures we are imposing today will keep the epidemic from evolving in the way it did during the first wave, but they are clearly not enough to reverse the rise,” says Marc Van Ranst. “We will have to do our best for that.”
Minister of Health Frank Vandenbroucke (sp.a) has already indicated that the number of contacts per family member is considered to be limited to three. It cannot be ruled out that other measures are also necessary to prevent worse. In Paris – where the figures are more or less comparable to Brussels – bars and cafes will close again for at least two weeks. That brings back nasty memories of the past spring and is gradually approaching a second lockdown.
Virologist Marc Van Ranst: ‘Certain groups are insufficiently informed. We really need to reach them and get the message across’
What experts have been advocating for some time is a highly targeted campaign to correctly inform people, point out the seriousness of the facts and guide their behavior. “Whoever reports the GEES will determine that we hammered on it almost every time, ”says Marc Van Ranst.
“It is important that such a campaign actually comes into existence. This is perfectly possible with specialized communication agencies. Certain groups in our society are insufficiently informed. We really have to reach them and get the message across, ”says Van Ranst.
Judgment
Besides ignorance, there is also just stupidity. Less herb has been used against this. The way the American president Donald Trump has been telling nonsense for months, can be a symbol.
“It is actually a lack of civic spirit,” says Marc Van Ranst. “Some people feel invulnerable. They are aware of the dangers but think nothing can happen to them. They take risks that endanger not only themselves but also other people who are much more medically vulnerable. ”
We now mainly look forward to any new measures that will be imposed. A positive aspect is that the noise on the lines between politicians and experts is gradually disappearing. In recent months, the political world has regularly hid behind the experts. Politicians hardly seemed to dare to defend their policies in newspapers or in television studios.
A new government team with full powers should put an end to this.
Featured Image: wearecovert.com
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