PRESIDENTS: Volodymyr Zelenskyj (tv) and Vladimir Putin. Photo: TT and AP
There is speculation as to whether it is possible to get Vladimir Putin (70) and Volodymyr Zelenskyj (45) to the negotiating table. Experts believe that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death is proof that the Russian president will never keep an agreement.
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– Any negotiation that leads to Ukraine canceling its offensive will be used by Russia to regroup and rebuild its military power in order to wipe out Ukraine, says Professor Stefan Hedlund at the University of Uppsala.
– This means that there is no opportunity for Zelenskyj to negotiate – until Putin and Russia are forced to admit defeat, says Hedlund to VG.
The professor is completely clear:
– Russia must be forced to lose and to acknowledge that they have lost. Anything else will be interpreted as Moscow winning. There is a deeply disturbing probability that Putin can still win, Hedlund believes.
KREML: Vladimir Putin in a digital government meeting on Wednesday. The photo is from the Kremlin’s photo pool. Photo: Mikhail Metzel / AP / NTB
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently said in an interview:
– You cannot make compromises or have a dialogue with a liar, he added CNN.
– We are ready to negotiate with everyone on acceptable solutions, but it is up to them – we are not the ones who refuse to negotiate, Vladimir Putin has said several times, including in an interview with state Russian TV.
– I am alarmed that it is said that weapons are the only way to peace, said NUPI researcher Julie Wilhelmsen in a conversation during Arendal Week.
But Yevgeniy Golovchenko at the Department of Political Science at the University of Copenhagen assesses it like this:
– As it is today, it is not appropriate for Zelenskyj to conclude a final peace agreement with Russia – until Ukraine has regained control over its territories.
– Why?
– From a Ukrainian perspective, it would be a defeat, because it means that Russia has been allowed to conquer and maintain new areas. The war has de facto facto De facto is Latin and means “in fact”, “in deed”, “in reality”. (snl.no). lasted since 2014 and Ukraine has minimal reason to trust that the current government in Russia will keep its word.
– Putin has said clearly that Ukraine is not a proper state in his eyes. The Kremlin’s statements and actions clearly indicate that the invasion from 2022 is aimed at removing the independent Ukrainian state.
– What can happen?
– If the conflict is frozen now, there is no guarantee that Russia will not use the time to regroup and invade again for the third time, says Golovchenko to VG.
EXPERT: Charlotte Flindt Pedersen. Photo: Steen Brogaard
Charlotte Flindt Pedersen, Russia expert and director of the Foreign Affairs Association in Copenhagen, responds as follows when VG asks if it might be appropriate for Zelenskyj to negotiate with Russia before all territories are recovered:
– It is not relevant yet, but it would probably be at a time when both parties are sufficiently exhausted. But for Ukraine, it requires that NATO or possibly UN troops guarantee the borders that are being negotiated, and that there is unconditional peace on Ukrainian territory and that the path into NATO and the EU is clear. Or it not worth any peace.
– Could a demilitarized Crimea be the solution?
– No, I don’t believe that! The battle for the Black Sea is one of the keys to understanding the war. And Crimea is for the Russians access to the Black Sea. So they will not give up militarily. The Baltic Sea is now dominated by NATO countries – they call it the “NATO Sea” – and they would do everything in the world to avoid the same thing happening to the Black Sea. Therefore, Georgia is also very vulnerable in this war.
To VG’s question whether Putin is actually willing to negotiate, Charlotte Flindt Pedersen replies:
– Putin does not want to negotiate. At the same time, Prigozhin’s death showed that a promise made by Putin cannot be trusted.
Professor Stefan Hedlund completely agrees:
– As Prigozhin could confirm, Putin will never keep any kind of agreement.
Yevgeniy Golovchenko sier dette til VG:
– As it stands today, sincere negotiations between Putin and Zelensky for a long-term peace seem unlikely. One can well imagine a negotiation with a new president in Russia after Putin, but even that would be difficult without Ukraine taking back control of the territories currently occupied by Russia. It is due to a lack of trust in the Kremlin and not only in Putin.
PS: Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was promised amnesty after the coup attempt at the end of June. However, he died in a plane crash exactly two months later. Western experts believe the Kremlin was behind it.
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Published: 29/09/23 at 01:33
Updated: 29/09/23 at 01:48
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2023-09-28 23:33:53
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