4 Dec. 2023 06:00 – Updated 4 Dec. 2023 06:02
It oscillates around presidential candidate Nikki Haley these days, but the road to becoming a real threat to Donald Trump is long and thorny.
Haley is apparently in a good period with big media reports, good coverage on national television channels, increasing interest from heavy donors and a generally whipped up mood that she might be able to do the impossible: threaten Trump’s candidacy.
But a fleeting phase with good news on several fronts can seem seductive and cover up harsh realities. And the hard numbers show that the 51-year-old former UN ambassador in Trump’s first round in the White House has the odds against him.
Trump’s strategy of completely ignoring the debates where the other contenders are squabbling and instead focusing on stunt performances of his own has given him a solid lead in the race to become the Republican nominee in the November 2024 election.
Haley vs. Trump?
But many observers point out that Haley will profit from the fact that the fight may eventually be between her and Trump and that the others will be peeled off in turn. Several have already given up.
And as recently as Wednesday, she received the blessing of Americans for Prosperity, the political arm of the powerful and staunchly conservative Koch network, in the race to become the Republican presidential nominee.
For Haley, this means support from activists around the country and virtually unlimited campaign funds. According to the AP news agency, the statement from AFP Action is particularly painful for Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis, who is also trying to present himself as an alternative to Trump. But both are far behind the hard-hitting politician from New York.
– If you only look at the numbers right now, it is difficult to see a way forward for anyone other than Trump, says Kyle Kondik. He is an election expert at the University of Virginia.
Miles ahead
A summary of several national polls shows that Trump has a lead over Haley of around 50 percentage points. DeSantis is also miles behind the former president who has a clear lead on the Republican side in states that nominate early in the process, such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
But Haley is gaining strength in some polls after solid performances during several debates. The polls show that she is on par with DeSantis in Iowa and well ahead of him in New Hampshire.
– There is a narrow path to victory for Haley, says Republican number cruncher and pollster Whit Ayres.
And this narrow possibility requires her to be among the very best in both states and possibly win in her home state of South Carolina, where she was once governor. The latter may be an unattainable goal as RealClearPoilitics places Trump in the lead by over 30 percentage points with Haley in second place.
Momentum
But should Iowa and New Hampshire give Haley a real boost, she will get what she needs most to beat Trump: momentum, media coverage and free-flowing money from donors who have given up on the unpredictable ex-president.
From there, the road eventually leads to large states that send dozens of delegates to the national convention, such as California and Texas. A good showing in the previous states could give Haley a chance here.
– Momentum, having wind in your sails, means a lot. So much depends on a good result in the former states. It has a dramatic effect on how the candidates do in later states, says Ayres.
But the numbers in the states with early nominations are overwhelmingly on Trump’s side. In Iowa, he leads DeSantis by 30 points, with Haley in third. In New Hampshire, Trump is 27 percentage points ahead of her.
Strengthened by adversity
The many lawsuits Trump is involved in only seem to have strengthened his following. Many who, during the most revealing phases of the court, kept him somewhat at arm’s length, are now flocking to him.
If Haley is to stand a chance, the field of candidates must be whittled down to a duel between her and Trump. Then she will be able to rally the many anti-Trump factions in the party and perhaps steal some of his voters.
So far, Trump’s campaign has mainly focused its fire on DeSantis, the presumed strongest challenger. But should Haley’s momentum continue, she will undoubtedly face a series of broadsides from the former president’s combative men and women, social media influencers and the special action committees that do the grunt work for Trump (super PACs).
Most political observers seem to agree that Haley’s best chance is to take Trump by the horns, face him head-on, with no other rivals. But even if this strategy should yield verbal victories, they must be translated into voters who break with the pack.
Loved by their own
Trump’s unconventional and sometimes unpredictable platform, with a solid core of anti-immigration, is immensely popular among his supporters.
Haley, on the other hand, is a more traditional and established candidate who is campaigning on a mix of hard-hitting foreign policy and economic conservatism.
She is a supporter of a more interventionist foreign policy than the more isolationist Trump will pursue. Her views on abortion are not clearly formulated, but she goes on to be a strict opponent of abortion, but not among the most orthodox.
It is difficult to say whether she attracts the voters because of her electoral program or because she is, in short, not Trump.
The fourth debate between the remaining Republican candidates will be held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, next week. There is little indication that Trump will indicate his presence.
2023-12-04 05:00:08
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