Miami/Washington —
The White House confirmed on Monday that senior US officials held a meeting at the Miraflores Palace with the president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, and other representatives of his government to discuss “energy security” in addition to the “state of health” of the Americans detained in the country.
This meeting takes place a few days after the beginning of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the announcement of the sanctions of the United States and the European Union on the Kremlin to put economic pressure on the administration led by Vladimir Putin.
Crude prices skyrocket
Those punishments, however, have had knock-on effects on Western economies. In the first days of the war there was a drastic increase in the costs of oil and natural gas, the main stock markets collapsed and the price of grains reached maximums.
From the moment the Russian president approved the invasion of Ukraine, the price of oil reached its maximum value in seven years, above 100 dollars a barrel. This scenario, according to some experts consulted by the voice of americaThis was to be expected, because Russian oil plays an important role in global economies, including the United States.
“Russia is the second largest oil exporting country after Saudi Arabia and is the third largest producer of crude oil in the world,” explained Evan Ellis, a professor at the United States War College, to the FLYand clarified that this increase is due to fear of supply interruption.
First contact between the US and Venezuela in a long time
However, many wonder what interest the United States may have in Venezuela to hold a high-level meeting in the Venezuelan capital, a situation that has not occurred in years due to the absence of diplomacy between Caracas and Washington.
Dr. Christopher Sabatini, principal researcher on Latin American programs at the Chatham House think tank in London, Great Britain, confirmed that this first contact shows that “the United States is looking for other sources of oil to minimize the impact of sanctions against Russia on the world oil price”.
Despite this, he warns that “the rapprochement with Venezuela to increase its capacity to export its oil to international markets is complicated.”
Relax sanctions
First because, according to him, “Venezuela wants there to be an unfreezing of the sanctions against Russia that affect its bank accounts. The problem with that is that Venezuela has presumably been used by the Putin government to launder money and for illegal trade.”
On the other hand, there are the sanctions imposed by the United States against the Government of Venezuela to weaken its “ability to sell and attract investment from the US and other countries.”
That is why, in Sabatini’s opinion, the White House would have to “release the sanctions that prohibit the export of Venezuelan oil to international markets”, since, otherwise, this type of transaction could not be carried out. commercial.
If these punishments are cancelled, foreign financing could begin to be sought in the US financial markets to be able to import Venezuelan crude to the United States and other countries in the world without restrictions.
US government official to VOA: “The national security and national interests of the United States and hemispheric stability” are the main driver of these rapprochements. “Too early to jump to conclusions.”
Maduro defends the capacity of Venezuela
President Nicolás Maduro, late this Monday, said that “Venezuela has the capacity to increase its crude oil production to more than 3 million barrels per day if necessary for the stability of the world,” despite the fact that, for now, , it would not have the necessary infrastructure to be able to process that demand.
The lack of infrastructure is the result of the serious political and economic crisis currently in Venezuela.
“Oil production has fallen completely,” said Sabatini. “If in the 1990s Venezuela produced 3 million barrels of oil a day, now it is between 400,000 and 700,000 barrels a day.”
“For there to be an impact on the largest international market, the United States has to facilitate Venezuela’s ability to increase its production,” which, according to the expert, “is not something that is going to be easy” nor is it going to be to be able to do “in the short term” for the investment that an operation of these characteristics requires.
A long-term investment
“Investment is needed, equipment is needed and many more refineries are needed, because the oil produced by Venezuela is very heavy and has to be refined,” he added in this regard.
It is the same opinion shared by Eduardo Del Valle, doctorate in Chemical Engineering from Louisiana State University and energy consultant for investment in the oil sector, who points out that the crude oil industry in Venezuela “is practically moribund.”
“Even if you open the doors to Venezuela, it will take one or two years to start increasing production. There are many things to do and Venezuela does not have the personnel or the money, and for that to happen the sanctions would have to be lifted”, commented Del Valle.
Of course, if the approach of the United States is long-term, in that case it could be thought that “Venezuela could replace much of the lack of oil” that would be lost due to sanctions on Russia.
“With a lot of investment, I have seen plans where Venezuela was even thinking of producing 6.4 million barrels a day,” said Del Valle, because the country “has the necessary reserves” to be able to carry out a project of this type. .
Give Maduro carte blanche?
Despite this, says Sabatini, the United States is facing the dilemma of whether or not to negotiate with the Venezuelan government, recognize it as such “without losing its principles” before “the democratic opposition” and “give Nicolás Maduro carte blanche regarding the rights human beings and in the electoral processes”.
“It is very complicated, because the Maduro government is not a counterpart like any other, and despite the fact that there is an interest in making the sanctions more flexible, it cannot do so at the expense of the principles and its allies in the democratic opposition,” he added.
production will not be enough
However, Venezuelan oil production is not enough to replace everything that the US exports from Russia, according to what he assured the FLY Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan also an expert on energy issues, but clarified that Venezuelan crude could be used to replace Russian crude in the refineries of the Gulf of Mexico.
“If Russian oil leaves the market, which is half a million barrels (daily), there would be a lack of heavy crude oil and it would be convenient for the US. that part of the Venezuelan crude could replace that heavy crude,” he said.
The effects that the entry of Venezuelan oil could have on the US market, however, would not be seen in the long term for consumers, according to Monaldi. “I don’t think this would improve the price Americans pay for gasoline too much,” he said.
However, in the medium and long term – if the disruption of Russian exports continues over time – “there if Venezuela could contribute a little more,” he assured.
Other options that the US has, Monaldi explained, is to increase internal production by one million barrels a day throughout the year, with the Shell deposits in West Texas. Overseas, the US could export crude from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries or strike a deal with Iran.
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