Biden is about to assume the presidency of the United States. During the Trump era, Sino-US relations have experienced turbulent storms such as trade wars, technological wars, and epidemics, and ended with the United States’ internal and external difficulties and China’s continued growth. The bimonthly magazine of Harvard University in the United States predicts that Sino-US relations in the Biden era will become more “civilized.” Although Biden’s policies will be more beneficial to the US economy, China will continue to narrow the gap with the United States. However, China’s prospects face several challenges.
The Harvard Business Review published an article by Focus Economics chief economist Arne Pohlman and economist Oliver Reynolds. The two generally expected that Sino-US relations would be rhetorically more civil after Biden took office. Contact with key international issues such as climate change, and reduce the focus on punitive tariffs.
However, Biden is expected to continue to pressure China on the theft of intellectual property rights, and Sino-US relations will not return to the Obama years. The United States now regards China as a direct competitor of emerging technologies, which will determine the future economy. mode. Biden’s plan is also a little bit of protectionism, such as his $400 billion “Buy American” initiative, which aims to encourage companies to transfer their supply chains back to the United States.
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Biden mainly needs to decide how to deal with Trump’s legacy of the Sino-US trade war and the technological war.
A recent survey by two authors shows that in the trade war, nearly 80% of 67 international institutions expect that Biden will partially or completely withdraw Trump’s tariffs on China. The economic incentives for lowering tariffs are obvious. Costs for American consumers will be reduced, and Chinese goods will also gain a greater market share in the United States.
Technological warfare is more difficult. Only 61% of surveyed institutions expect that Biden will partially or completely lift restrictions on Chinese technology companies, and 39% are expected to remain unchanged. US national security concerns, coupled with Congress’s growing toughness towards China, unless Biden can exchange China for major concessions on corporate governance issues, it will be difficult for the US to soften its position.
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China is expected to become the only major growth economy due to the global epidemic, and its export advantages are further expanded compared with other countries. The two authors expect that the economic gap between China and the United States will continue to narrow in the next five years, and China’s nominal GDP will increase from 67% of the United States in 2019 to 71% in 2021, and in 2025. Increased to 82%.
However, the two authors believe that China’s narrowing of the gap with the United States also faces several challenges, including the continued structural problems of China’s economy, the high level of debt, and the widening gap between the rich and the poor. In recent years, tensions with the Trump administration have also harmed China. China’s aggressive foreign policy has also encountered more international backlashes.
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