Can Animals Predict Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions? A Global Network Aims to Find Out
Imagine a world where we can predict natural disasters like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions before they happen.
That’s the ambition driving Icarus, an international collaboration of scientists using cutting-edge animal tracking technology. Their innovative approach involves enlisting thousands of unlikely recruits: goats, dogs, birds, insects, and a whole menagerie of wildlife.
"Ultimately, we hope to launch a fleet of about six satellites and establish a global observation network," said Martin Wikelski, the project leader from the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behaviour in Germany. This network would not only provide crucial data on animal movements and health worldwide, but also unearth how these creatures respond to powerful geological events.
The idea isn’t entirely new. Throughout history, there have been whispers of animals behaving oddly before earthquakes or eruptions. Some point to the Greek historian Thucydides, who claimed that rats, dogs, snakes, and weasels abandoned the city of Helice just before a devastating earthquake in 373 BC. In modern times, the 1975 Haicheng earthquake in China was preceded by snakes and rats fleeing their burrows.
While these anecdotes are intriguing, the scientific explanation behind this behavior remained elusive until recently.
Scientists believe that "during the build-up to an earthquake, tectonic plates slide across each other under enormous pressures," Wikelski explained. "That throws out ions from the rocks into the air," which animals may be able to detect.
Early experiments by the Icarus team in Sicily, around the slopes of Mount Etna, have provided tangible evidence. "We have found the behavior of goats is pretty good at predicting large volcanic eruptions," Wikelski said.
The goats, it turns out, become especially nervous before an eruption and refuse to graze on higher pastures they usually frequent. "They know beforehand what is coming. We don’t how they do it, but they do," he stressed.
Similarly, researchers have observed similar pre-earthquake activity in dogs, sheep, and other farm animals on the Abruzzo mountains outside Rome, successfully predicting seven out of eight major earthquakes in the region over the past 12 years.
This burgeoning field of animal-based forecasting is fueled by a revolution in tagging technology.
Tiny digital transmitters, powered by small lithium batteries, allow scientists to track animals with lightweight GPS devices, turning vast datasets into insights.
"We are going from where we couldn’t really track most vertebrate species on the planet to flipping it," Scott Yanco, an ecologist at the University of Michigan, told MIT Technology Review. "We are now able to track most things.”
Beyond predicting natural disasters, these tracking technologies offer a wealth of other benefits. Researchers can monitor wildlife health from space, track migration patterns, and even study the spread of diseases.
For example, electronic ear tags with tiny accelerometers, currently being attached to wild boar, are revealing valuable information about the spread of African swine fever, a highly contagious virus.
“This technology should also help scientists understand the processes that drive migrations,” said Wikelski.
Transmitters are being fitted to creatures as small as death’s-head hawkmoths, offering unprecedented insights into their 2,000-mile migration between Europe and Africa every year.
The Icarus project initially planned to use a Russian radio telescope on the International Space Station. However, after the invasion of Ukraine, the team decided to build their own small satellite called the Icarus CubeSat, set for launch next year.
"After that, we will scale up our operations until we have around six CubeSats and a permanent system for monitoring animals as they move and migrate across the world," Wikelski said.
His vision is ambitious: a global system that will not only provide a massive amount of data about animal behavior but could potentially transform our understanding of the natural world and
give us the ability to predict and prepare for natural disasters before they strike.
## Can Animals Predict Earthquakes adn Volcanic Eruptions? We talked to the Scientists Behind the Project trying to Find Out.
**World Today News Exclusive:**
For centuries, folklore has suggested a link between animal behavior and impending natural disasters. Now, an ambitious international scientific project called Icarus is harnessing the power of technology to investigate this age-old belief.
We spoke with Dr. Martin Wikelski, the project leader from the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior in Germany, to understand how tracking thousands of animals across the globe could revolutionize our understanding of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
**WTN:** dr. Wikelski, the idea of using animals to predict earthquakes might seem far-fetched to some. Can you explain the scientific rationale behind Icarus?
**Dr. Wikelski:** Absolutely! Animals have a sensitivity to their surroundings that surpasses our own. We believe that as tectonic plates shift and build pressure before an earthquake or volcanic eruption, they release charged particles, or ions, into the air. These subtle environmental changes might be detectable by animals even before we see any surface effects.
**WTN:** You mentioned early experiments near Mount etna in Sicily. Can you elaborate on those findings?
**Dr. Wikelski:** Our initial work focused on goats roaming the slopes of Mount Etna. We found a remarkable correlation between changes in their behavior – such as becoming restless, altering their grazing patterns, and congregating in specific areas – and the occurrence of large volcanic eruptions. This suggests they might be sensing these pre-eruptive changes in the environment.
**WTN:** That’s engaging! What kind of technology is Icarus utilizing to track these animals?
**Dr. Wikelski:**
icarus combines cutting-edge animal tracking technology with satellite data. We equip animals with lightweight trackers that record their location, movement patterns, and even physiological data like heart rate. This facts is transmitted to satellites and relayed back to us, allowing us to monitor their behavior in real time, on a global scale.
**WTN:** You’re aiming to create a global network of satellites for this project. What are the long-term goals of this ambitious vision?
**Dr. Wikelski:** Our ultimate goal is to establish a comprehensive system that can accurately predict earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, potentially saving countless lives and mitigating economic losses. Beyond that, this project offers a unique window into the lives of animals, allowing us to study their behavior and adaptation to their ever-changing environment.
**WTN:** This project raises many ethical questions about animal welfare and the potential for disrupting their natural behavior. How is Icarus addressing these concerns?
**Dr. Wikelski:** Animal welfare is paramount in our project.The tracking devices are designed to be lightweight and minimally intrusive, and we adhere to strict ethical guidelines in all our research methods. We also collaborate closely with local communities and conservation organizations to ensure the well-being of the animals we study.
**WTN:** Dr. Wikelski, thank you for sharing your insights into this groundbreaking project. The potential of Icarus is truly awe-inspiring. We look forward to seeing the results of your research and the impact it could have on our understanding of the natural world.
