In the month of March we lived immersed in a uncontrolled market bubble with significant rises in the prices of raw materials, including vegetable oils. Lampante olive oil reached 3,500 euros per ton (€/Tm) and from then until today the waters have gradually returned to their normal course.
However, despite the bubble bursting, the price level has remained higher than the day of its formation, trading this shining quality, for maintaining the same reference, at 3.250 €/Tm and leaving a certain calm after the storm in the market of origin.
We already know the data on production and output of oils for the last month and with it the Olive oil balance as of April 30 in Spain, which has been advanced by the Food Information and Control Agency. The first news is that we can definitively consider the production of oil in the amount of 1.483.901 Tmfor this 2021/2022 campaign, 150,000 Tm more than the capacities made and 94,000 Tm more than last year.
Another relevant piece of information is the total output of olive oil for the month, domestic consumption (estimated at 60,000 tons) and exports (96,000 tons), which would add up to 156,000 tons, being the best number of departures since March 2021.
Until this date and since the start of the campaign on October 1, domestic consumption grows 12.47% -the set of packaged oils and other uses in food industries- because according to data from the national association of packagers Anierac, packaged sales of olive oil in the last twelve months up to March decreased by 11.76%. Nevertheless, exports decrease 7.57%, compared to the same period of the previous year.
Sunflower oil substitution
It is still early to assess the positive effect that the sales of olive oil as a substitute for sunflower oil derived from the shortage and price increases of this product due to the war in Ukraine.
Cumulative imports of olive oil up to April are similar, with 124,900 Tm, to the figures for the same period of the previous year, coming mainly from a largest offer from Portugal, which this year has broken a new production record with some 206,000 Tm. And also best production in tunisia, although this second option is temporarily less interesting for price reasons. These are the two countries of origin of the approximately 80% of our imports.
Price stability
The whole of the packaging industry maintains the same level of stock in its warehouses as the previous month with 287,480 Tm. In the price chapter there is stability, with extra oils that are paid from €3,450/Tm, paying good premiums for high-quality singular oils at prices of €3,800/Tm and €3,900/Tm.
And as we have already indicated, lampante oils with minimal fluctuations are quoted at €3,250/Tm on a 1st basis. Between these two categories and according to physicochemical parameters, the prices for olive oils virgins are around €3,350/Tm.
Finally, the olive groves are at the right time to bloom. The latest rains have come at a very opportune moment, but they have been insufficient. A) Yes, the trees have a very uneven appearance, with a better recovery of young olive groves compared to old ones and a traditional framework. Although, technically, good fertility rates are valued, which will finally determine the production for the next campaign.
Scopes
–
