Caixin China’s services PMI in July recorded 54.1, up 0.2 percentage points
2023-08-03 09:46:39 Source: Financial circles share to:
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According to Caixin, the July Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (Service PMI) released on August 3 recorded 54.1, 0.2 percentage points higher than June. The previously announced Caixin China manufacturing PMI fell 1.3 percentage points to 49.2 in July, falling to the contraction range again after two months. Mainly dragged down by a slowdown in the manufacturing PMI, the Composite Output Index fell 0.6 percentage points to 51.9 in July, the lowest since February 2023.
The trend of Caixin China’s manufacturing and service industry PMI is different from that of the National Bureau of Statistics, while the trend of the comprehensive PMI is consistent. According to data recently released by the Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 49.3 in July, still below the critical point; the service industry PMI fell by 1.3 percentage points to 51.5; mainly dragged down by the decline in non-manufacturing PMI, the comprehensive PMI in July The output index eased 1.2 percentage points to 51.1. Both the service industry and the comprehensive PMI of the Bureau of Statistics fell to new lows in 2023, indicating that the pace of expansion of production and operation of enterprises has slowed down.
The sub-item data showed that the supply and demand of the service industry continued to expand. In July, the business activity index of the service industry rose slightly, and the new order index rebounded in the expansion range, but the expansion momentum of external demand slowed down significantly. Some interviewed companies said that the uncertain outlook of the overseas economy has formed certain restrictions on the export of services.
The employment situation in the service industry continued to improve. The employment index of the service industry in July was in the expansion range for the sixth consecutive month and rose to the highest level since March. However, it is still not enough to digest the orders on hand, and the backlog of work in the service industry is still increasing.
Mainly affected by the increase in manpower, raw materials, transportation and accommodation costs, the input price index of the service industry in July was still higher than the critical point, slightly lower than the previous value; subject to the pressure of market competition, the sales price index also fell slightly in the expansion range that month .
Service industry companies remained optimistic about the market outlook, but the business expectations index fell below the long-term average in the expansion range in July, the lowest in nearly eight months. Some companies expect domestic and overseas economies to improve in the coming year, while others are worried about the current weak global economic environment.
Wang Zhe, a senior economist at Caixin Think Tank, said that the hot and cold of the service industry and the manufacturing industry were prominent features in July, and it is still an indisputable fact that the macroeconomic climate is low and the downward pressure on the economy is heavy. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee set the tone that the current economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, and the external environment is complex and severe. It emphasized that we must actively expand domestic demand and give full play to the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic growth. At the policy level, ensuring employment, stabilizing expectations, and increasing residents’ income are still top priorities. At present, monetary policy has limited effect on boosting the supply side, and active fiscal policy targeting the demand side should become a priority option.
Editor in charge: Zhao Lu RF13155
2023-08-03 01:46:39
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