Bulgarians will go to the polls this coming Sunday for the fifth time in two years, at a time when the poorest member of the EU, traditionally close to Russia, is politically divided over the conflict in Ukraine, reports France-Presse (AFP) today, March 31 ).
The geopolitical crisis has exacerbated the political instability that has gripped the Balkan country since 2020, when months of anti-corruption protests rocked the conservative prime minister. Boyko Borisova. A series of elections followed, the latest of which threatened the return of yet another fractured parliament, unable to form a stable government in the Eastern European nation.
“We broke the record for the number of elections” says an analyst at the Bulgarian Center for Liberal Strategies in an interview with AFP Daniil Smilov.
Opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s vote, which many local commentators call “decisive” as it will determine Bulgaria’s political trajectory during a period of general instability, predict a low voter turnout as many in Sofia and other cities do not hide their anger and disappointment.
So, Alexandra Kirovawho took part in the massive 2020 demonstrations calling for change, told AFP she won’t even vote this time.
“I realized that something rather reckless was going on (during the protests). The logic was: ‘Let’s overthrow them and then we’ll see’,” said a 41-year-old woman who returned to Bulgaria after receiving her doctorate in France.
“We just planted a time bomb. What we see now is the result.” the former Bulgarian activist noted, adding that she now focused on her family in order to “emotionally distance herself from the pain of politics.”
According to the latest polls, the Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party of ex-Prime Minister Boyko Borissov is head-to-head with the pro-Western reformist Let’s Change (PP) party, gaining about 25 percent of the vote. Led by a 42 year old Kiril Petkova Harvard-educated who briefly served as prime minister in 2022, the PP joined forces with the small right-wing Democratic Bulgaria coalition.
“If any of the blocs form a government, they will likely need partners from parties whose image is tarnished by suspicions of corruption or whose stance on Ukraine is problematic,” Smilov says.
The ultra-nationalist Vazrazhdane (Renaissance) party, which is gaining popularity in the polls, and the former communist heir to the Bulgarian Socialist Party, have defended Russia since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. Many in Bulgaria continue to revere Russia as the country that ended five centuries of Ottoman rule in 1878, the French news agency recalls.
Considered pro-Russian President of the country Rumen Radev, who appointed interim cabinets between a string of elections, previously called Kiril Petkov and his allies “warmongers.” He also spoke out against sending weapons to Ukraine. At the same time, Bulgarian military factories are operating at full capacity, producing ammunition for Kyiv, which is exported through third countries, AFP notes.
“Political instability may continue for another year or two,” believes Dobromir Zhivkovhead of the research agency Market Links (Sofia), warning that this is fraught with an even greater undermining of external confidence in Bulgaria.
The country on the EU fringe has already had to abandon its goal of joining the euro in 2024, while still awaiting the full amount of European funds from the recovery plan from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Joining the Schengen area was again delayed after objections from the Netherlands and Austria, concerned about migratory flows from the east.
On top of that, five elections cost Bulgaria a fortune. The “electoral voucher” is estimated at more than 400 million leva (204 million euros) – about the annual budget of the country’s Ministry of Culture.
