“It is also really exceptional that this legislation goes that far,” says Senden, who also specializes as a lawyer in the field of equal treatment. The law signed by Orbán this week falls within a pattern, she says. “We see that in more Central and Eastern European countries there is a conservative trend, where gender equality is coming under pressure.”
Hungary is therefore not alone in the discussion. Orbán is supported by Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and also Poland.
What else can Brussels do?
If the Commission wants it, it can cut Hungary’s annual subsidy of some six billion euros. Since 1 January, this has been legally possible if the government of a Member State does not comply with European rules for the rule of law.
“But Poland and Hungary have started a case in the Court to remove that legal instrument,” Senden said. Nevertheless, Brussels could already use it. After all, as long as the judge has not declared it illegal, the measure is valid, explains the professor.
In the end, all kinds of interests come into play, which means that Brussels, at least until now, has been relatively mild for Hungary, according to Sterk. For example, the country can use its veto to block the EU budget or other major decisions.
“It is therefore difficult to say whether this issue is the prelude to a tougher stance against Hungary, or if it is just an emotional outburst for the stage.”
What about the Article 7 procedure?
Hungary is already under trial to disenfranchise the European Council. This one article 7 procedure is considered the most severe punishment possible. Poland and Hungary are the first Member States against which it has been launched.
But three years after a large majority in the European Parliament voted in favor of it, it has come to nothing concrete.
This is because it only takes one Member State to block these heavy penalties. So Poland can save Hungary, or vice versa, and that has happened until now. “So Brussels finds it difficult to bite into practice with these teeth, even if it wants to,” says Senden.
Can Hungary be expelled from the EU if necessary?
No, that’s pretty much impossible. There is no treaty that allows this. If a country wants it itself, it is possible: look at Brexit. But Hungary has little to gain from voluntarily leaving the EU.
In theory, a treaty can be drawn up to expel an EU country. However, all other member states must unanimously agree to this. And as long as, for example, Poland or another EU country continues to support Orbán, this is not possible. Incidentally, Rutte is also against the import of such an article, he said this week.
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