If each side’s respective exercises are carried out smoothly, then they can do so as if the other is backing down, which can further galvanize their public in support of the State and its policy towards the Essequibo dispute.
The dispatch of a British offshore patrol vessel to Guyana for bilateral exercises amid its former colony’s newly heated territorial situation. The dispute with Venezuela led the latter to respond by ordering its own exercises of this type. Some observers were concerned that this could undermine the agreement earlier this month to resolve their dispute over Essequibo through purely peaceful means, but the fact of the matter is that the soft power interests of both sides are cynically served by through these tit-for-tat drills.
Guyana presumably asked the UK to reroute its nearby ship in the region to conduct impromptu exercises following Venezuela’s referendum on its disputed region, in order to demonstrate that it has tangible military support from two important countries for its claims. after its recent air exercises with the United States. The United Kingdom happily complied because it always supports the United States on principle, and London also wants to present itself as a global power despite the decline of its global influence after Brexit.
As for Venezuela, while I would prefer that neither the United States nor the United Kingdom carry out any drills with Guyana in Essequibo (including the region’s marine territory), its forceful response to the second of those two suggests that Caracas does not expect London intensifies. to the level that Washington could have. If each side’s respective exercises are carried out smoothly, then they can do so as if the other is backing down, which can further galvanize their public in support of the State and its policy towards this dispute.
Guyana can claim that Venezuela was dissuaded from any speculatively secret military campaign in Essequibo, which the UK can partly attribute as supposed proof of its restored global influence, while Venezuela can say that it dissuaded them from a supposedly secret military provocation in its against. The first’s audience would feel more confident in its claims, the second’s would be more inclined to believe in the post-Brexit vision of a “global Britain”, while the third’s would rally more around Maduro.
Each of these are important targets, as tiny Guyana would struggle to defend itself from the much larger Venezuela on its own if those two came to blows, the British public remains divided over their country’s foreign policy, while Maduro prepares for next year’s elections. These soft power imperatives suggest that more retaliatory exercises can be expected, and Venezuela could be seeking a major partner country whose participation it can present as support for its claims, as Guyana has done with the US and UK.
However, so far no country in the world has expressed its support for Caracas. Both Chinese and Russian Foreign Ministry spokespersons reaffirmed their country’s support for a peaceful resolution of this dispute and evidently gave no credence to Venezuela’s claims. This is a pragmatic stance from their perspective, as they cannot significantly support their partner in any war over the Essequibo for simple geographical and logistical reasons, even if they wanted to (which they don’t).
However, even if Venezuela only continues to conduct its own exercises in response to those Guyana organizes with any other country, it will continue to reap the soft power dividends of these tit-for-tat dynamics. However, the appearance of increasingly frequent drills in and around Essequibo could contribute to concerns about the militarization of the region, raising concerns that the security dilemma of its two claimants is spiraling out of control. Therefore, both must be careful not to provoke a war by miscalculation.
By Andrew Korybko
American political analyst
2023-12-31 06:33:11
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