British Defense Minister Grant Shapps warns against the consequences of a possible Russian victory in Ukraine in a recent interview with The Telegraph.
– The West must ensure that Russia loses in Ukraine, otherwise we risk attacks from dictatorships such as China, Shapps told the newspaper.
Regimes that do not believe in democracy are closely following the outcome of the war in Ukraine, claims the Briton, citing Iran and North Korea as examples. He believes that these may attack countries in the West if they perceive that the West has run out of striking power.
– Britain is living in more and more dangerous times, warns the Minister of Defence.
– A sharpening of the threat picture from leaders in the West
Finland’s former Prime Minister Sanna Marin was on the same track during her recent visit to Oslo.
– If Russia does not lose, it sends a signal to other authoritarian regimes. A signal that this (the war, journ.am.) pays off, and that you can win something even if you have the eyes of the world on you, she said from the stage.
Latvian Foreign Minister Krišjānis Kariņš and the Danish Russia expert Jørgen Meedom Staun have also warned that Russia’s ambitions do not stop with Ukraine.
Sylo Taraku is a political scientist, author and social debater, and last year published the book “Continent of war – Europe after the cold war”. He believes it is important to nuance the picture.
– These statements illustrate a sharpening of the presentation of the threat image among Western leaders. From saying that Russia is going to invade one European country after another, they are now warning that China and other authoritarian states are also ready to attack the West if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, he begins to Dagsavisen.
– There is every reason to take the security situation seriously, but I think such analyzes are excessive simplisticthe author adds.
[ Forsker hevder Russland har gjort «forbrytelsen over alle forbrytelser» ]
Points to Russia’s cooperation partners
Sylo Taraku himself fled the war in Kosovo to Norway in the early 1990s. In his recent book, he shows how wars in Europe since 1990 – including the war in Ukraine – can be seen as a result of the dissolution of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union and the major upheavals that followed in its wake. The author draws the broad lines from the period after the Cold War to the present day.
Taraku says there does not exist “a general conflict between authoritarian states and democracies with a built-in war potential”. He explains:
– After all, Western countries sell weapons to a number of authoritarian regimes, which would be unjustifiable if these countries represented a real security threat to us. Moreover, large democratic countries such as India, South Africa and Brazil cooperate with Russia, despite Western sanctions. In other words, the geopolitical landscape is more complex than the dichotomy “good versus evil”.
Dagsavisen has previously mentioned the so-called Brics group, which is a cooperation forum consisting of, among others, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – all countries that have had increasing economic and political influence in recent decades.
[ Lavrovs kraftsalve mot USA: – Alt startet med Bush ]
NATO’s strength
Taraku points out that the US has suffered defeats, most recently with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, without this resulting in autocratic countries attacking the West.
– Should Russia win the war against Ukraine, it could certainly lead to a further weakening of the West’s global dominance. But that does not mean that the West is perceived to be as weak as it will be it is convenient to go to war against the West. The NATO alliance, led by the USA, is still the world’s most powerful, and by a wide margin, says the author and adds:
– After the Second World War, we have not had any wars between great powers, precisely because it is almost impossible to win such wars. Security policy analyzes must start from the fact that states are rational actors.
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Having said that, regional conflicts and tensions represent a major challenge for the security situation in the world today, admits Taraku.
– It is crucial to prevent an escalation of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, in addition to reducing the tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan. As for the war in Ukraine, everything indicates that neither side is going to win that war. But Ukraine still needs support to be able to defend itself, and to be able to secure a strong position in any peace negotiations with Russia, the author believes.
Also read: Researcher on Peskov’s warning: – It’s about creating fear
Also read: Expert sees change in Putin: – Now talking about an existential war
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2024-02-03 05:00:00
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