The Oslo bench in the Storting can be painted red: As many as 12 of 19 direct seats from the capital go to the red-greens on VG’s party barometer.
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– It did not look so nice, says Heidi Nordby Lunde, the Conservatives’ third candidate in Oslo and leader of the Conservatives in the city.
She has just seen VG’s recent party barometer for Oslo, conducted by Respons Analyze, where the Conservatives only get 20.1 percent. Today, the party has five direct seats from Oslo – in the poll they get four.
– We see that instead of fighting for six seats, we are fighting for five. We need to mobilize around 10,000 voters in Oslo, says Nordby Lunde to VG.
The Labor Party is the city’s largest party in the poll – even though they leak to all the other red-green parties.
And while the Labor Party loses one seat, the Socialist People’s Party, the Center Party, the Red Party and the MDGs each win one.
SV: Glad the FRP is going down
– This is a very good measurement for us. We have great growth from 2017 and three in the Storting, which is our goal in the election campaign in Oslo. This means that we are looking forward to election day even more, even though we know that we can not take anything for granted, says Kari Elisabeth Kaski, SV’s 1st candidate in Oslo.
She is extra happy that Frp is going down while SV is going up. In 2017, they were the same size in Oslo.
– I must say that I am extra happy with. I think it is because the population in Oslo both sees that SV is serious that we want to fight for the population here and prioritize what are the most important issues for people, social equalization and climate, Kaski continues.
VG’s information: MDG’s target is nine percent
Over 30 percent of voters in Oslo will vote for SV, Rødt or MDG. Support in the capital is vital for three of the frontier comrades: the Left, the Red Party and the MDGs.
And it’s wild west on the left:
- SV steals voters from Rødt and Ap
- MDG steals voters from the Red, Labor and Social Democrats
- Red steals voters from SV and MDG
- Labor steals voters from MDG
In this poll, the MDGs receive 10.2 percent and two seats. That is up from six percent in 2017 – but down from the local election in 2019, when MDG received 15.3 percent.
–– MDG is above the threshold in many measurements now, but we do not take anything for granted. It is a battle between getting a person into the Storting or ten. This is where the battle is in Oslo, because here relatively few votes can help us tip over the barrier, says Lan Marie Berg, 1st candidate for MDG.
VG is aware that internally in the MDGs, they operate with nine percent that the absolute lowest party can get in Oslo if they are to have hope of getting over the barrier limit nationally.
– In the local elections you doubled, this fades a bit in relationships, right?
– Yes, especially since we had then ruled for four years in Oslo. The results from Oslo show that it is popular when MDG gets to govern in Oslo. Now we want the chance to show this in the Storting, says Berg.
Historically small largest party
Among the red-greens, the Labor Party is the big loser – and falls 5.3 percentage points from 2017. Frode Jacobsen is the leader of the Oslo Labor Party and is in the vulnerable 5th place on the Storting list.
He consoles himself with the fact that the Labor Party is the city’s largest party – with only 23.1 percent support.
If the election result is similar to VG’s poll, the Labor Party will note a new record: The smallest largest party in Oslo in a parliamentary election.
– Now it is full throttle all over the city to mobilize people in our core areas to vote. It is a motivation to see that this measurement confirms what we believe, namely that we get a little tailwind, says Jacobsen.
–The goal is to get five seats. In this poll, the Labor Party gets four – and it is Jacobsen who must stand outside the Storting.
But all hope is not lost for the 53-year-old with Storting ambitions: Red has the last mandate in this poll, but the Labor Party is closest to taking it.
Jacobsen answers in this way why people in Oslo should vote for the Labor Party, not Red.
– If you want a stable government that will govern Norway safely, a government where we have the EEA as a core point for our relations with foreign countries and a government that implements a fair climate policy and creates more jobs, then you must vote Labor.
Illegal Labor voters
Loyalty to the Labor Party is down to 57.8 percent. In other words, just over half of those who voted for the party in 2017 say that they will do so now as well.
The biggest voters are the co-operation parties in the Oslo City Council, which run away with 10 per cent each.
– It is clear that it is challenging that we lose voters to other parties. This is something we must sit down and look at thoroughly after the election, says Jacobsen.
– Now I do not think we will make a new strategy two days before the election, but we must mobilize the voters who want a new government with a strong Labor.
This shows the measurement:
- Both the Labor Party and the Conservative Party are doing badly in the capital. In 2013, the two parties received over 60 percent of the votes combined. In this survey, they get 43.2 percent.
- The Liberal Party makes a leap in the poll – because they run away with voters who voted Conservative in 2017.
- On the red-green side, there are massive internal displacements. Large groups of voters go between SV, Rødt, MDG and Ap.
- Sps Jan Bøhler is in again. He has lived dangerously since Sp’s major collapse at national polls in August. In this poll, it seems that the change of party from the Labor Party to the Socialist People’s Party can secure him a new term in the Storting.
- FRP’s Jon Helgheim has not changed party – but he has changed constituency. He comes from Buskerud, but was wrecked in the nomination process there and is in 2nd place in Oslo. In this poll, he still does not get a seat in the Storting.
Helgheim: – Voters can be fooled
FRP’s second candidate, Jon Helgheim, will not get a seat in the Storting in this poll.
– It seems as if the voters in Oslo do not like Frp?
– According to my calculations, there are less than 400 votes that decide whether I enter. There are a number of parties in Oslo that simplify things very much and that have run a very sharp rhetoric where they should take the rich and created the impression that it makes society better for those who struggle in Oslo.
– Are the voters so gullible that they go for simplified messages then?
– I do not want to call the voters gullible, but it is clear … It may be required that we have an in-depth debate about these phenomena and the problems that are very Oslo-related.
–Helgheim believes that the other politicians do not talk about challenges related to immigration and integration.
– I am afraid that some voters may be fooled by the parties who say that everything will be better if you attack those who have money. That is probably what has happened since the Reds are making such tremendous progress in Oslo.
Want back liberal, urban Conservatives
The Conservatives lose almost 10 percent of the 2017 voters to the Liberal Party in this poll. Heidi Nordby Lunde says that the party has called 50,000 voters in Oslo – and that they have spoken to many former Conservative voters who have voted in favor of the Liberal Party.
–– There are those who say they want a clearer climate alternative, and those who say they voted tactically for the Liberal Party to save Erna Solberg’s government.
The latter frustrates the Conservative Party.
– What we know, as we have seen time and time again, is that if they vote tactically to save the Conservatives, then we lose elections.
But she acknowledges that it is not just tactical voters who have left the Conservatives.
– It would be dishonest to say. There are some mood swings and some trends that are clearer in Oslo than in the rest of the country. And then I think we have a long way to go to come back as the liberal, urban party that I felt I joined.
Monday from 17:45 you can follow the election drama in the live broadcast to VGTV!
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