Humans’ ability to suppress impending doom is amazing. Most Western Europeans refused to believe that Vladimir Putin was planning an attack on Ukraine. In 2016, many people followed the Brexit referendum and the presidential election in the USA with the motto “It will be fine”. A rude awakening followed.
The supposedly unthinkable was suddenly real. The British voted to leave the EU and Donald Trump became president. Europe and Germany were not prepared for this. contingency planning? none.
Will France’s citizens teach the world the next hard lesson and vote for Marine Le Pen instead of Emmanuel Macron? It doesn’t have to be like this.
Many cling to hope. And the polls
But the calm with which Europe is going into the weekend is surprising. She does not seem relaxed, more like not wanting to believe, because what is threatening there contradicts her own ideas. And again, the EU and the federal government do not give the impression that they are prepared.
You cling to hope and polls. Macron is several percentage points ahead of Le Pen.
But first of all, had Polls also before the Brexit vote and before the US election predicted the failure of the Brexiteers and a victory for Hillary Clinton, albeit by smaller margins than now in France.
Second, the lead of the bourgeois camp over the extreme right has shrunk dramatically with each runoff. In 2002, Jacques Chirac and father Le Pen were still 82-18. In 2017 between Macron and daughter Le Pen 66 to 34. Now the forecasts are 55 to 45.
Thirdly, there are risk factors that also played a decisive role in Brexit and the Trump election: the contrast between town and country; Misjudgments among young voters and the Number of those who reject the extremes but abstainbecause the course of the government disappoints them.
The influence of small towns and villages is underestimated
The weight of the inhabitants of small towns and villages is often underestimated in western democracies. Urban elites in politics, media, culture and business dominate public discourse. However, their agendas ignore everyday life and the economic and social interests of voters in the surrounding area.
France is both highly urbanized (Macron voters) and highly rural (Le Pen voters). Many young voters stayed at home for the Brexit vote, even though their future was at stake; many young French people are also politically disinterested or vote for the right.
Read more about France on Tagesspiegel Plus:
Abstentions can decide the election. Half of the voters for third-placed left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon want to stay away from the runoff, only a third for Macron and a fifth for Le Pen.
Another warning sign is the competence judgement. As in the case of Trump, many voters do not consider Le Pen’s program to be empty promises. They trust her more than Macron when it comes to issues such as social inequality, pensions, purchasing power, security, counter-terrorism and immigration.
Le Pen’s proximity to Putin as a turning point
The story has its own twists and turns at times. If Le Pen loses, she owes it to her friend Vladimir Putin in large measure.
Macron’s values have recently risen sharply twice: after the start of the war on February 24. And after the TV debate in which he reminded the French that Putin is “Le Pen’s banker” and finances their party.
The central challenge goes beyond France: How do centrist parties win back the trust of the citizens that they have everyone in their sights?
–
