The Brexi strictly speaking actually started on 1is February 2020. It has been accompanied by a transitional period, until 31 December 2020, during which trade and political relations between the EU and the United Kingdom remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the negotiators of the two parties, on the basis of a comprehensive exit agreement, signed in the fall of 2019, had to refine the terms of future relations, in particular trade, and resolve thorny issues that do not. have not been in 2019, like access for European fishing vessels to English waters.
Why are we in a hurry today?
The eleven-month transition period already seemed short, when announced, to settle potential disputes in many areas. It could also be extended if the two parties agreed. And the confinement linked to Covid-19 has also almost stopped the negotiations for two months. But despite this, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson refused again in June to extend the transition. And for an agreement to be ratified in time for December 31, it would have to be found before the end of October. Boris Johnson is even now talking about October 15. For once, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, agrees (on the date).
What happens if there is no agreement?
In case of no deal , the United Kingdom becomes a complete foreigner for the Member States of the European Union, like any country in the rest of the world with which there would have been no special relationship for centuries. The rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO) then apply concerning customs duties and the movement of goods and none of the commercial or political “privileges” existing until then are retained.
What concrete consequences would this have?
Economically, partner companies on both sides of the Channel have a lot to lose. The common market had generated production chains straddling several European countries (planes, automobiles, etc.), including the United Kingdom, which will have to be completely rethought. This will also have serious consequences for transport connecting the two entities, whether maritime or air.
And for people?
Not only will they no longer circulate as easily, but the many university or financial links, for example, will have to be rethought. Not to mention the British or EU nationals who lived astride the two countries.
Why do we keep talking about fishing?
This is one of the main sticking points. When the United Kingdom, then endowed with a small fishing fleet, chose to join the European Economic Community (EEC), the ancestor of the EU, in 1973, it had largely opened up access to its waters to other European fleets, in exchange for concessions in other areas. Forty-three years later, when the Brexit referendum was organized in 2016, fishing and the feeling of some Britons not to be sovereign in their exclusive economic zone had weighed heavily in the pro-Brexit vote. Even today, the European Union refuses to give up access to British waters because the fishing sector of some of its members, including France, depends on it. Conversely, for Johnson, it is an element of sovereignty on which he absolutely refuses to back down, vis-à-vis his electorate.
What about Ireland?
Brexit sparked fears of reviving the Northern Irish conflict by relocating an external border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This particularity of a country split in two, part of which would remain in the EU, also raised fears that it could serve as a gateway to the Union for products from all over the world thus escaping taxes and not responding. the health, environmental or social standards in force in the Union. An agreement for specific customs regulations to avoid this problem was found in autumn 2019. But, according to information from the Financial Times, Boris Johnson is preparing, this week, to also return to this commitment. This further increased tensions on the eve of the resumption of negotiations.
What is the third sticking point?
The conditions of fair competition. The European Union was built on the foundations of a common market where the ease of movement of goods on common standards should benefit each member. At the same time, it protects them, to the extent of its other international agreements, from competition from the rest of the world by applying customs duties or refusing goods that do not meet European criteria. The big fear with Brexit is that the UK will, in particular, become via Northern Ireland, a Trojan horse to bring in, without taxes or standards, goods that will compete with those of the EU.
– .
