Much more will shape the game itself. Here’s what you need to know.
The Chiefs took a more difficult path to the Super Bowl. The Eagles have come out of the conference weakest, and nothing highlights the list of quarterbacks they’ve beaten this season: Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Cooper Rush, Kenny Pickett, Davis Mills, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones (twice), Justin Fields, Davis Webb and the combination of Brock Purdy, Josh Johnson and Purdy without the ability to kick a football into a hotel room at New York.
The Eagles had the league’s simplest regular-season schedule by Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the catch-all metric FootballOutsiders.com uses to measure a team’s overall quality. They destroyed both of their opponents in the playoffs, 69-14, but those opponents were an overperforming team that would need to rebuild and a formidable roster through their third and fourth quarters before they had none.
That doesn’t mean the Eagles can’t handle the Chiefs. The Eagles didn’t just manage the schedule offered to them; they annihilated it. Their only losses have come when they turned the ball over four times, played with their backup quarterback, or both. It’s also true that Hurts’ power and flawless decision-making make it difficult for unknown teams to face him. The Eagles’ schedule just makes it a bit more difficult to know how they’ll fare against the current NFL standard bearer and the best quarterback on the planet.
Incidentally, the Chiefs had the league’s fourth-easiest regular-season schedule, according to Football Outsiders.
The 2022 Eagles would be the fourth team to win the Super Bowl with the easiest regular season schedule by average opponent’s DVOA.
Previous: 2016 Patriots, 1999 Rams, 1984 49ers.
The Chiefs had the fourth-easiest schedule this year.
Thanks to @GregABedard for bringing this up.
– Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) January 31, 2023
The quarterback’s health will matter. The bye week will allow Hurts and Mahomes to recover from the hurts they have been through. Hurts missed two weeks behind in the season with a sprained sternoclavicular joint in his right shoulder, and even after his return he often reported less than 100%. Mahomes hobbled during the AFC Championship game after sustaining a sprained ankle in the divisional round.
Mahomes knew his ankle would be sore in the days following Sunday’s dramatic win, but he expected the extra week off would allow him to regain near full strength. He will need every bit of mobility he finds. The Eagles have the best pass rush in the NFL – waves of powerful, fast linemen and linebackers that stay fresh as they spin the whole game. They will test Mahomes’ offensive line and his ankle like no other opponent this season.
The Eagles showed no hesitation in using Hurts as a runner, although he wisely scampered out of bounds or slipped more often. Hurts didn’t need to get into the NFC Championship Game after the Eagles took the lead and the 49ers lost their quarterbacks; he completed 15 of 25 passes for 121 yards. Which quarterback recovers the best over those two weeks will have a major impact on which team plays better on Super Bowl Sunday.
There will be a chess match along the lines. Take out the quarterbacks and it’s possible the Super Bowl’s two best players could be lined up within inches of each other on some plays. Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones and Eagles center Jason Kelce were on the all-pro first team. Both owe their greatness, in part, to their intelligence.
Eagles teammates consistently describe Kelce as the smartest player on the team. “One of the smartest people I’ve ever been around,” said offensive tackle Andre Dillard. Jones has become the NFL’s most dominant inside defensive lineman outside of Aaron Donald — “an MVP-type defensive player,” Cincinnati Bengals coach Zac Taylor said. He is physically dominant, built as a running-packed inside lineman with the movement skills of an edge pass rusher. His mind is equally impressive.
In the AFC title game, Jones made a deadly sack on final possession for the Bengals after engineering a one-on-one against tackle Hakeem Adeniji. Jones read Cincinnati’s lineup, specifically how the tight end lined up on the line and moved inside. Blocked by a lineman, he was unstoppable.
Against the Eagles’ excellent and deep offensive line, Jones won’t be able to spot the weak links, even though star right tackle Lane Johnson and starting guard Landon Dickerson are hit by injuries. The Eagles will still have to factor in Jones with two blockers on all dropbacks. Kelce is a genius at deciphering defense and calling protections. Jones is good at blowing up those plans. This collision will be one of the most important and compelling subplots of the Super Bowl.
AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith will see plenty of rookies. One of the Chiefs’ crucial developments of the season has been the ability of three rookie cornerbacks – first-round pick Trent McDuffie, fourth-round pick Joshua Williams and seventh-round pick Jaylen Watson – to become reliable players on defense. by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They just played the best wide receiving corps in the NFL, and now they will face the best tandem in the NFC.
Watson has one interception in both of the Chiefs’ playoff victories, and Williams knocked out Joe Burrow after a tip from safety Bryan Cook – another rookie, taken in the second round. In the Super Bowl, Brown and Smith will present a challenge similar to the one the Chiefs faced against Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase in the AFC title game. They had six catches apiece, for 83 and 75 yards, and Higgins scored a touchdown.
If Hurts hinted that his shoulder affected him in the playoffs, it may have been in his inability to pass the ball to Brown. A dominant force all season, Brown has just 50 yards on seven catches in the playoffs. In both Eagles wins, Hurts knocked down Brown on deep passes that would have been touchdowns after Brown burned through a defensive back. Brown should have more opportunities against the Chiefs’ inexperienced secondary.
Jonathan Gannon needs something more against Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles defensive coordinator favors the two-safety style that prevents explosive plays. He prefers simplicity, which allows a star-laden unit to play fast. Mahomes struggled early last season against two deep safeties, but he’s moved on, and this season he’s mastered those looks and felt comfortable moving the Chiefs methodically down the field. His ankle injury forced him to use more short passing, but he had already changed his game to exploit openings in defenses hesitant to give up big plays.
“The best thing he’s done this year is actually get the ball back to checks,” backup quarterback Chad Henne said late in the regular season. “Getting the ball out, not having to overtime at any time.”
Against the Giants in the Divisional Round, Gannon changed his tendencies, bringing more pressure to disrupt New York’s paced short passing game. He’ll have to be even more creative to solve, or at least snuff out, Mahomes.
Andy Reid will be entering rare coaching territory. Reid is already one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, but this Super Bowl will take him to the next level. Victory of the AFC title game put him alone in second place with 21 playoff wins; he came out of a tie with Tom Landry and trails only Bill Belichick (31). After this clash with the Eagles, the only coaches who will have appeared in more Super Bowls than Reid (four) will be Belichick (nine), Don Shula (six) and Landry (five). And Reid is one of eight coaches since the AFL-NFL merger to win four or more conference championships — more than Bill Parcells and Bill Walsh, to name just two.
Reid may become the 14th coach to win multiple Super Bowls. A win would of course make a third Super Bowl title more likely for Reid, who at 64 has shown no indication he plans to stop coaching anytime soon. Only Belichick, Joe Gibbs, Chuck Noll and Walsh have lifted the Lombardi Trophy three or more times.
Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, 41, may one day reach those heights, but he’s entering at the other end of the spectrum. He made the playoffs in his two seasons in Philadelphia and he earned his first playoff win two weeks ago. This week will be his first Super Bowl experience as a head coach or assistant, but he won championships in college: three as a wide receiver at Mount Union Division III and one as a coach. defensive backs from Mount Union.
