From Rio de Janeiro
According to Brazilian electoral legislation, the election campaign began last Friday. But as has already been said here, in Brazil there is usually a long distance between reality and the law.
So there was no break. What happened was a very short interval for the campaigns of the two opponents, the former center-left president Lula da Silva (photo)and the current president, the far right Jair Bolsonaroadapted for the fierce battle that is announced.
unexpected increase
Lula finished the first round with 48.4 percent of the vote, confirming what was expected by the most respected polls and polls in Brazil. On the other hand, the far right surprised: if the same polls gave it between 34 and 37 percent, but it reached no less than 43.2.
Among the various explanations for this unexpected increase, analysts agree that there has been a shift of voters from other candidates to Bolsonaro, as well as those who have declared themselves “undecided”. Everyone wanted to prevent Lula from winning in the first round.
In any case, the center-left remains the favorite, but at a shorter distance than expected.
His advantage, recorded in that first week towards the ballot, fluctuates between eight and ten points. But in front the volatility recorded in the previous round keeps the concern high not only among those responsible for his electoral campaign, but also among the electorate, the financial market, the international scene and the defenders of democracy.
Brazil is sharply divided in half, with a distance between Democrats and supporters of the worst and most abject president in history that no one but the most radical supporters of Bolsonaro could foresee.
This is confirmed by the most recent polls the landscape is divided in the middle, indicating a worrying atmosphere. In this first week towards the ballot there was no concrete proposal from the government, but rather an intense and furious shooting between the two sides.
absurd lies
Lula’s campaign shoots against documented far-right accusations, while that of Bolsonaro spreads absurd lies in mind-boggling numbers on social media against the opponent, without anyone being able to prevent their movement. He speaks for converts, by the way, but his intention is to reach more people.
The former president has gained significant support from eminences of liberalism and conservatism, with a particular focus on economists who have collaborated with the former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso and they have a strong influence among the owners of the money, as well as the historical figures of what was the Brazilian social democracy.
Cardoso himself and some of his prominent former ministers defend the vote in Lula, in the name of preserving democracy.
In addition, the former president has gained the full support of the current senator and candidate who took third place in the first round, the Conservative Simone Tebet.
Support from the governor
Bolsonaro, in turn, shows support from elected or re-elected governors in Brazil’s most populous and economically powerful provinces. (San Paolo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais), which does not necessarily mean that their vote will spread among the electorate. And also of members of the extreme right, in addition to the homonymous and powerful “bishops” of the evangelical sects.
It will be days of tension between now and October 30th. Lula continues as a favorite, and everything indicates that he will emerge victorious from the polls.
extreme polarization
But now it is very clear that, in addition to inheriting a shattered country, it will also inherit a divided and radically divided country.
There has never been a similar scenario in any of the elections since redemocratization. The presidents elected since 1989 have certainly inherited a divided Brazil, but between various groups, with two or three strongest.
A country practically divided in half, e With a Congress in which the right, the far right, the opportunists and the corrupt always form the majority, it will be an extra burden for Lula da Silva in 2023.
And another extra weight – and macabre – is in the last-minute economic measures announced by Bolsonaro: In his attempt to raise the electorate that supports him, he just announced “social benefits” that hover around the five billion dollar house.
Where he’ll get that money from, I have no idea: for now, the holes will be in education and health programsand they will have to be covered up in the next government, which begins in 2023, when Bolsonaro returns home or goes to court.
