Brandenburg is a region that is used to punching above its weight. With just 2% of Germany’s population and a microeconomic economy, it completely envelops the capital, Berlin, and casts a long shadow over what happens in the nation’s government.
The result of Sunday’s election, in which the Socialists have saved their necks against the radicals, will have a greater impact than its real significance, especially in the context of the wave of extremists in Saxony and Thuringia at the beginning of the month. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), who is approved by only 3% of Germans, will try to be in the winning photo. The roulette wheel on who will be the next leader of the Socialist Party is spinning again. Political strategists will come up with all kinds of dynamic combinations to sow regional agreements that will bear fruit at the national level in the 2025 general election. The effects will even be felt in the elections in Austria next Sunday.
Brandenburg’s prime minister, Dietmar Woidke, had tied his political future to these results and therefore tried to shift the focus to his own management, with the approval of the majority of his fellow citizens. The economy of Brandenburg, which has only known socialist leaders since reunification, suffers from structural problems, but is growing. Unemployment is higher than the German average, but lower than that of its eastern neighbours.
Although traffic jams are frequent, it takes only half an hour by train and less than two hours by bike to get from Potsdam, the capital of Brandenburg, to Berlin. This region benefits from the continuous exchange of students and workers with one of the most energetic capitals in Europe and is growing in the heat of the start-ups Berliners. Zalando, Mercedes Benz, Rolls-Royce and Tesla are here.
The results also show that, although “security” and “migration” are still mentioned in the same paragraph and although these topics are so magnetic that they absorb everything else, a portion of voters are not looking for change at any price.
AfD candidate in Brandenburg (left), Hans-Christoph Berndt, and party leader in Thuringia, Bjoern Hoecke, at the party’s election party in Potsdam yesterday.FILIP SINGER (EFE)
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Two very different realities
But they also show that two very different realities coexist in the same territory. In Brandenburg, the most common age is 50 years old. Its population is shrinking. Rural areas are poorly connected, emptied and do not feel the same radiation of the economic transformation as the cities. This partly explains why, compared to the traditional parties, the populists have grown the most. In addition to the Alliance for Germany, the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht and her newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) have won as many votes as the CDU and have confirmed themselves as kingmakers in the three regional elections held this autumn. The spectre of neophyte governments and eccentric coalitions, as in France, the Netherlands or Sweden, has not evaporated.
The Brandenburg president was rescued by none other than a conservative leader from the neighbouring state of Saxony, which could indicate which way the winds are blowing in maintaining the cordon sanitaire against the AfD. The CDU has lost around 5% of the votes, possibly many of which are useful votes for the Socialists.
The East German voter is traditionally volatile and more susceptible to being influenced by charismatic individuals or novel groups, especially in local elections, where people vote more for individuals than for parties. But experts expect this phenomenon to spread to West Germany, where 85 percent of the country lives, ahead of the federal elections.
Seven groups sit in the German parliament today. In the last federal election, the two largest parties combined won less than half of the parliament.
Social and economic reality confronts politicians with a needle that most of them know how to thread. Floods, a lack of labour or an ageing population, for example, leave few options. The problem is getting elected after being elected.
From the German chancellor’s official apartment in Berlin, there is a privileged view of the famous Brandenburg Gate, the only one of the 14 that were part of the old city wall still standing and crowned by the goddess of Victory. Perhaps a beacon of hope for Scholz that things can improve.
Begoña Quesada is a writer. Her latest book is In defense of the imagination (Nobel Editions)
