Exit polls in Brandenburg show a lead for the SPD, where a battle was expected between the Social Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany.
In particular, the results of polls outside the polling stations in the German state give the SPD 31% and the AfD 30%.
At lower levels are the Christian Democrats (CDU) with 12% and Zara Wagenknecht’s newly formed party which obtained 12%, just a few months after its establishment.
At 5% are the Greens who are fighting for their entry into Parliament.
On the contrary, the Liberals are left out, as is the party of the Left (Die Linke).
Meanwhile, a second poll outside the polls gives the SPD 32% and the AfD 29%.
Wagenknecht’s BSW is at 12%, the CDU at 11.5% and the Greens outside Parliament at 4.5%.
The turnout was clearly better than the previous election in 2019. As of 14:00 (local time), 46% of registered voters had cast their ballots compared to 31.9% in the previous contest.
Many voted by mail, including Brandenburg resident Olaf Solz who is in New York for the UN General Assembly.
Forming a government the next day will be difficult. Before the election, the parties had ruled out cooperation with the AfD.
It is recalled that at the beginning of September in two other states in the eastern part of Germany, Thuringia and Saxony, the AfD had recorded impressive results, winning in Thuringia and finishing second by a small margin in the other state.
What the state prime minister said
Prime Minister Dietmar Vojtke (SPD) appeared modestly optimistic about the outcome of tonight’s match and spoke of “a lot of work” behind the success of his party. He, hugely popular in Brandenburg, had said before the election that if the SPD lost, he would quit. “Whoever wants Voydke, votes SPD”, was his campaign slogan, and his opponent Alice Weidel from the AfD argued that the SPD eventually received votes from supporters of other parties, such as of the Greens.
The “strategy vote” was also described as a “problem” by the leader of the Greens, Ricarda Lang. However, her party can still hope to secure its entry into parliament through the direct election of one of its candidates. In Brandenburg the electoral regulation stipulates that if a party elects even one member of parliament by direct election, it ensures its entry into Parliament regardless of its overall percentage.
The CDU, for its part, is facing its historically worst election result in eastern Germany. Party secretary-general Carsten Linnemann attributed the CDU’s low ratings to the duel between Dietmar Voytke and AfD front-runner Christoph Berd, which ultimately polarized voters.
The Christian Union (CDU/CSU) had made sure to decide on the chancellor candidate already before today’s election, with the CDU leader securing it for himself and relieving himself early of the stress of the election result.
The “riddle” of government formation
The government under Dietmar Voytke (SPD, CDU, Greens) does not seem to be able to continue at the moment and, given the refusal of all parties to cooperate with the AfD, an alliance with Zara Wagenknecht may be needed. Already Mr. Vojtke has left open the possibility of negotiations with BSW.
Chancellor Olaf Solz, who voted by mail while in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, had little to gain from a possible victory for his party in Brandenburg, where the SPD has won every election since 1990. He had however, he stands to lose a lot if he loses, as there is strong resentment within his party for both him and the federal government.
Voytke’s strategy
It is characteristic that Dietmar Voytke chose to fight the election battle by betting on his personal capital and without the chancellor, who in fact is a resident of Brandenburg, because he did not want to share the wear and tear of the federal government.
The Brandenburg elections conclude an extremely difficult election year for the government and not only, with the defeat of the federal coalition parties and the consolidation of the rise of the extremes in the European elections, in Saxony and Thuringia.
The next state election will be held in March in traditionally Social Democratic Hamburg, and Olaf Scholz will sooner or later also be faced with the question of whether he will ultimately retain the privilege of being head of the SPD’s election campaign again ahead of the autumn’s federal election. 2025 or be forced out in favor of a more popular candidate such as Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
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