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Dedicated expert: Dr. Josef Braml (center) in conversation with retired Brigadier General. D. Helmut Dotzler (left) and Colonel Thorsten Milewski. © Photo: Becker
At the beginning of the week, the internationally active USA expert Dr. Josef Braml at the Kaufbeuren air base about the possible consequences of the US elections, the security situation in Europe and the political and economic world situation.
Kaufbeuren – Four weeks before the elections in the USA, many people in Germany and Europe are not just asking themselves the question of who will win the race for the White House. It is also about what effects can be expected for Germany and Europe. USA expert Dr. Josef Braml during a lecture by the German Atlantic Society (DAG) on Monday in the officers’ mess at Kaufbeuren Air Base. It became clear that regardless of the election result, a new era is dawning for all Europeans. “Europe must become independent,” demands Braml, who has worked, among other things, for the World Bank and as a legislative advisor in the US House of Representatives.
Braml had already given a lecture in Kaufbeuren in 2016 before the US elections and had predicted Trump as the election winner at the time. This time he first let listeners vote, 95 percent of whom believed Kamala Harris would win. “In America the outcome is completely different,” he said.
One thing is clear: If Harris makes it – the decision will probably be made in Pennsylvania – she will also strongly represent American interests. Also in the military field. “For a long time, Europe has indulged in the illusion that the USA would provide Europe with security services that most Europeans themselves were not prepared to do for many years because they preferred to invest their ‘peace dividend’ in social benefits,” said the political scientist, who was born in Regen Author of several books on politics between the USA, Russia, China as well as global economic connections and possible trade wars.
Expert in Kaufbeuren on security in Europe – deterrence for peace
Braml found clear words for German and European policy towards Russia. After Putin’s second attack, “you should have heard the last shot.” Because “if you want peace, you have to be able to deter people.” In the long term, one cannot rely on the USA, which has long had its focus on the Pacific region, as “there is not much to be had in the Europe museum”.
But there are definitely solutions, says Braml. Europe must develop its own military capabilities, independent of the USA – in the conventional and nuclear areas. Then attempts at blackmail by a possible second Trump administration or the Russian leadership could be prevented. “We have to spend a lot of money and do more to establish a European pillar within NATO,” said the 56-year-old.
Braml on the world situation – “butter against cannons”
The tense budget situation in many European countries leads to the dilemma of saving social benefits (butter) and spending them on armaments (cannons) or the reconstruction of Ukraine. Extremist parties would benefit even more from this. Shared debt to strengthen Europe militarily and finance the reconstruction of Ukraine would defuse the “butter against cannons” dilemma.
European states and institutional investors could invest their capital reserves in the euro and in the economic and military strengthening of Europe in order to prepare the continent for geo-economic competition. Only this association guarantees market power and options for action so that Europe’s countries can continue to operate and live independently.
USA expert in Kaufbeuren warns against isolation
The expert also found clear words for German economic policy. A “decoupling” (economic uncoupling) from China, for example, is fundamentally wrong and will ultimately affect the Federal Republic itself. China will overtake the West and is already there in the area of “AI”. They were also wrong about the sanctions policy against Russia.
“We cannot decouple ourselves from ‘non-democracies’,” said the expert. With the BRICS alliance, consisting of the founding states Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa as well as the states Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which joined at the beginning of 2024, a new association of fast-growing economies is also being created with around 3.6 billion people as a counterpoint to the West.
