/ world today news/ On the night of November 26-27, an anomalous cyclone covered Crimea and the Black Sea coast of Russia and Ukraine.
Storms with flooding, gusty winds, rain and snowfall that broke climate records are being reported from the Greater Sochi region to the mouth of the Danube.
In Odesa Oblast, the strategic road connecting Odesa and the Ukrainian Danube port of Reni was blocked due to snowfall.
A number of countries were forced to stop the work of checkpoints on the Ukrainian border.
In Crimea, local authorities reported damage to communications, power grids and transport disruptions.
Waves up to seven or eight meters high hit the shore.
Amid the raging natural disaster, which is also affecting territories controlled by Kiev, a number of Ukrainian publications have called for the use of bad weather for military purposes, including attacks on the Crimean bridge and infrastructure.
The element does not distinguish between warring parties
Bad weather complicates the operation of radars, air defense systems and radio-electronic warfare, creating opportunities for unmanned aircraft to move unnoticed, Ukrainian sources noted.
It would be strange to think that only one side of the conflict will suffer from the stormy start of the climatic winter. The bad weather completely deprives both sides of the conflict from the opportunity to use not only the air defense systems, but also the unmanned aircraft themselves, military expert and officer of the tank troops reserve Alexander Mihailovsky told IA Regnum.
„UAVs cannot be controlled in such weather; any launch will most likely result in damage and crash. Even if we assume that the UAV will fly a long distance and not fall, then when diving on the target, it can be thrown several meters from the target by a particularly strong gust of wind.” said the expert.
There are reports that due to the ongoing storm, Russian troops have stopped attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure using kamikaze drones. So until the storm ends, both sides will have to temporarily do without drones.
Continued bad weather could have a serious impact on the plans of both sides in the conflict, the expert added. Bad weather complicates the work of not only winged, but also surface drones – unmanned boats.
Therefore, until the end of the stormy weather, the Ukrainian armed forces will be deprived of the ability to use naval drones against Russian warships. But the capabilities of our Black Sea Fleet are also limited – the ships will temporarily not be able to go out into the open sea to patrol and launch missile strikes.
The road against NATO
But in some cases, bad weather gives the Russian troops an advantage. Earlier, soldiers of the Russian special forces “Osman” said that the Ukrainian armed forces had given up the use of Western armored vehicles in the Zaporizhia direction.
„The weather has changed and Western armored vehicles are not particularly suitable for moving through our areas. The “armor” does not pass, Bradley immediately sinks, said a fighter with the call sign Metis.
According to the fighters, the VSU command was forced to review its tactics. In particular, the formations in the direction of Zaporozhye have abandoned the use of armored vehicles and are now increasingly using small infantry units in an attempt to advance. However, this tactic makes it impossible for Ukrainian troops to move.
„Without technique, speed and mobility suffer. In addition, the infantry is deprived of fire support from the same tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and is left alone against our troops. Therefore, the advantage is now on the side of those who are on the defensive,” notes Alexander Mihailovski. At the same time, of course, it will be more difficult for Russian units to attack. But, the military expert adds, there is a difference: our equipment is better adapted.
The transition to NATO standards is gradually starting to work against the Ukrainian armed forces. The US and its allies have transferred to Ukraine hundreds of MRAP-class wheeled armored vehicles, which are not adapted for operation in off-road conditions. Videos have appeared on the Internet showing the combat vehicles stuck in the mud and unable to practically support the advancing forces.
The disadvantage of Western tracked armored vehicles is that they are, as a rule, much heavier than Soviet and Russian models. For example, the weight of the Abrams tank varies from 50-60 tons, while the weight of the T-72 is only 40-45 tons. The situation is similar with the Bradley, CV-90 and Marder infantry fighting vehicles, which weigh significantly more than the BMP-2 or BMP-3.
Another weakness of the Ukrainian armed forces is the lack of evacuation equipment. The majority of Soviet engineering vehicles were lost by the Ukrainian armed forces in the first stage of hostilities, and further deliveries of engineering vehicles to NATO cannot compensate for the losses. Ukrainian troops are also experiencing a shortage of tank tractors.
„The main “workhorse” of the engineering units of the US Army are the M88 armored repair and evacuation vehicles, Mihailovski recalled.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces received eight or ten of these machines in the M88A2 Hercules modification. By US Army standards, this is enough for about two motorized infantry brigades. “Fighting machines are powerful, capable of pulling an Abrams out of the mud, but they are simply not enough for an entire army, even more so on scorched black soil”notes the expert.
According to the analytical portal Lostarmour, whose users register losses of military equipment based on data from open sources, the Ukrainian armed forces have lost at least two M88A2 Hercules machines. So the shortage of engineer armored vehicles in units armed with American military equipment (Abrams tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers) is becoming critical, experts believe.
In a sense, the bad weather buried the plans of the Ukrainian armed forces for a deep offensive or even to conduct an active defense. Ukrainian troops are forced to use NATO armored vehicles due to lack of others.
In the last 24 hours, at least one Bradley infantry fighting vehicle has been lost by VSU forces in the Avdeevka area; Abrams tanks are used by enemy formations operating in the direction of Kupyansk, so in the near future losses can be expected among these armored combat vehicles.
The main thing is to wait out the storm
At the same time, the bad weather significantly less hindered the advance of the Russian troops in the Avdeev direction. Because the battles are fought in the immediate vicinity of urban areas and in the industrial zone, where asphalt roads are preserved, and the clashes are mainly fought by infantry forces at close range.
Another problem faced by the Ukrainian armed forces due to bad weather is the lack of warm military uniforms.
Abnormally cold weather in the Odessa region has already led to the death of at least three people. Ukrainian soldiers in the trenches face similar problems, which is why a number of volunteer organizations have announced an urgent fundraising for warm clothes, shoes, stoves, fuel, sleeping bags and other supplies.
„Despite the fact that time works both ways, we can say that “General Moroz” rather came to fight on our side again. And with him “Colonel Bezpathitsa”, summarizes Alexander Mihailovski.
In general, the storm may limit the capabilities of our aviation and navy, but this is temporary. But the established weather in the region of zero degrees is definitely not in favor of the VSU, so now the situation is more in favor of our troops.” summarizes the expert.
The situation at the front will be able to change when the ground “tightens” tightly and can withstand heavy armored vehicles. Until then, however, one of the countries that is less prepared for bad weather may suffer serious losses. And in this sense, the cyclone that hit Ukraine creates new opportunities for a Russian counteroffensive on one or several sectors of the front.
Translation: ES
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