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Ingrid Vik
The Committee for Eastern and Central Europe in Norwegian PEN
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Astrid Sverresdotter DypvikThe Committee for Eastern and Central Europe in Norwegian PEN
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Last month, the Serbian state of Bosnia and Herzegovina conducted an anti-terrorism exercise in Jahorina, outside the capital Sarajevo. The crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina could threaten the stability of Europe and the European joint project.
Chronicle
This is a chronicle. Opinions in the text are at the writer’s expense.The right-wing representative of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, now fears dissolution and war. The consequences will be dramatic: collapse of democracy, destabilization of the region and a wave of refugees.
Last month, the Serbian state (RS) in Bosnia and Herzegovina conducted an anti-terrorism exercise in Jahorina, outside the capital Sarajevo. Helicopters, armored vehicles and special police equipped with camouflage uniforms and heavy firearms were observed. Symbolically heavy from the same hillsides that were the hearth of the Bosnian Serb militia, which killed thousands of civilians during the wars of the 1990s. The bloodiest war in Europe since World War II resulted in 100,000 deaths and two million people fleeing.
Threatened
A peace treaty was concluded in 1995. This laid the foundations for the establishment of present-day Bosnia-Herzegovina, consisting of a Serbian republic and a Bosnian-Croat federation. Now, more than 25 years later, the agreement and the country’s future are at stake.
On the phone from Banjaluka, Aleksandar Trifunović, journalist and editor of the independent media platform BUKA, says that the situation is critical. At the same time, he believes they have been living in some form of war for many years. Lack of reconciliation has stopped the political processes. Without a minimum of trust between people and between people and leaders, it is impossible to move forward in the project of building economically and politically stable societies. Let alone an active and inclusive democracy.
Trifunović himself pays a high price for his critical journalism. He has been threatened with death, but experiences no protection from police and authorities in the Serbian state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the contrary, the authorities facilitate online platforms and online trolls who may continue to spread hate speech and false news, including against those like Aleksandar Trifunović.
False news
Norwegian PEN is now working to raise awareness of the negative development for freedom of expression in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the region in general. This is necessary at a time when the countries in the region are falling further and further down on indices of democracy and freedom of the press. Authorities go to great lengths to limit journalists’ opportunities for critical journalism.
The trend has been further exacerbated by the covid-19 pandemic. This has weakened the journalists’ financial livelihood, but also access to information and sources. This is happening at a time when the scope of false news, misinformation and conspiracy theories has increased to an extent never seen before.
Trifunović says that he is on his way to celebrate a relative who is defending his doctorate in medicine on the same day. She is a surgeon in Sarajevo, but on miserable working and wage conditions. Now she has been offered a job in Norway. It is an offer that is becoming increasingly difficult to say no to.
A regular declaration of war
Not least in light of the escalating political crisis, triggered by the RS leader Milorad Dodik’s constant rhetoric about secession. For the first time, he now threatens to pull the RS out of several state institutions, including from the country’s military forces. This is interpreted by many as a regular declaration of war.
Christian Schmidt, the UN envoy and leader of the OHR, which oversees the 1995 peace agreement, says that this “means secession without proclaiming it”.
The surgeon in Sarajevo is also part of a tragic trend. Lack of faith in the future has contributed to escalating migration and brain drain. At the same time, we know that democracy building is a long process, not something that can be solved overnight.
But why fight for the next generation in Bosnia-Herzegovina when they can have democracy tomorrow by moving to Germany or Norway?
It’s missing
Then the question is how this can happen in a state that has been the subject of a broad international commitment to democracy and peace for more than 25 years. Nevertheless, Bosnia-Herzegovina is struggling to put the wars behind it. And like the rest of the region, the political and democratic development is not going very well either.
increasingly, we see that the democracy project is missing
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The goal for all countries in the Balkans is integration into the EU and Western security cooperation. But increasingly we see that the democracy project is missing.
The main responsibility lies with the countries and the political leaders. But the international community also bears a significant responsibility. First and foremost, the EU, which has run away from its promises to let the Balkan countries in. Bosnia and Herzegovina submitted its application in 2016. But few, if any, believe that this will happen in the next decade. Then it may be too late.
What is the EU doing?
Today’s EU is also not the beacon for freedom of expression, democracy and progress that we like to believe. The Union is struggling with its own internal divisions, socio-economically and ideologically.
The ever-deeper dividing lines between Western liberal democracies and anti-democratic regimes in countries in Eastern and Central Europe directly affect European cooperation with the countries of the Balkans. There is a clear tendency for leaders in the Balkans to turn to regimes such as Hungary and build alliances that are clearly not in Western Europe’s interest. This exacerbated the divisions and the increasingly unstable situation in the Balkans.
A weakened EU has also opened up for a stronger commitment from countries such as Russia, China, Turkey and Muslim Gulf countries. It plays into an already tense relationship between the West and the East and emphasizes how the situation in the Balkans also has consequences for us and our security.
Misinformation
In the global arenas, Russia and China are supporters of Milorad Dodik. During the Security Council meeting in October, Russia and China ensured that the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina was not allowed to present his report on the ongoing crisis.
The geopolitical rivalry has also led to the Balkans being subjected to massive disinformation campaigns. The goal is to weaken democratic institutions and strengthen corrupt and anti-democratic leaders.
The crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina is therefore also a crisis not only for the country and the region, but for stability in Europe and for the European common project. For the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina, time is running out.
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