Bosnia is on the verge of collapse
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Serbian and Croatian nationalists are close to destroying the Bosnian state.
A group of demonstrators gathered outside the US Embassy in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, on November 2. They demand that politicians abandon their bet on nationalism and urge US President Joe Biden to prevent the country’s powerful political clans from provoking conflict between its three main ethnic groups: Bosnians, Croats and Serbs. In addition, the participants call on politicians to respect the rights of citizens and make sure that these rights are equal for all. In the Balkans, a new exacerbation, which risks turning into a full-scale war.
A unified army under threat
After the end of the Bosnian War (1992-1995), Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided into two semi-autonomous republics: Serbian and Croatian-Bosnian. Today, each of them has its own government and parliament. At the same time, there is a common Serbo-Croatian-Bosnian central government.
In 2006, the united army of Bosnia and Herzegovina was formed, consisting of 10,000 soldiers and civilians. The international community considers a unified army to be an important link between all three ethnic communities. It is this link that is under threat after the recent statements by the Bosnian Serb Chairman Milorad Dodik from the Bosnian Serbs that the Serbian part of BiH – the Republika Srpska – intends to form its own army and justice system.
Serbian nationalism of Milorad Dodik
This is not the first provocative statement by Dodik. However, this time the seriousness of his intentions is confirmed by the large-scale exercises of the gendarmerie of the Republika Srpska, held near the town of Pale. It was from there that the Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, recognized by the court as a war criminal, led the attacks on Sarajevo from 1992 to 1995.
In 2017, the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague recognized the three and a half year siege of the Bosnian capital as a crime against humanity. Today, many residents of BiH fear that their country is on the verge of a new war. At the same time, older people remember how long the international community hesitated before coming to their aid last time. Only after the subsequent massacre of 8,000 Muslims in Srebrenica, which was later recognized as genocide, in 1995, Western countries achieved the conclusion of the so-called Dayton Accords, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Republika Srpska’s aspiration for independence
It is obvious to observers that Dodik’s latest initiatives are aimed at destroying the state structures of BiH. Republika Srpska already has its own Health Agency, now it will have its own army. More than 120 decrees of high UN representatives in BiH, who worked after the war to create unified state structures in Bosnia and Herzegovina, can be canceled, and this is a direct threat to the territorial integrity of the country.
Croatian ultranationalists are also striving for the disintegration of a unified Bosnian state, and the leader of the Croatian community and the Croatian Democratic Commonwealth of BiH party Dragan Covic has been working shoulder to shoulder with Dodik for years.
So far, the European Union has not intervened in the situation, however, some MPs have already expressed concern. A number of MEPs, including the German green politician Reinhard Bütikofer, called on the European Commission to be tough on nationalists, while Michael Gahler, a spokesman for the European People’s Party (EPP), warned of the consequences of a possible declaration of independence by the Republika Srpska. , which, most likely, will be recognized by Moscow.
What do they think in the USA and Russia
Anxiety is also growing in the US. Renowned American expert on the Balkans, Daniel Surver, calls on the international community to demonstrate military strength in order to prevent the growth of nationalist sentiments in Bosnia and Herzegovina and related conflicts.
However, the international community has not yet rushed to work towards an end to ethnic divisions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Last week, US Special Envoy to BiH Matthew Palmer and EU Special Envoy for BiH Angelina Eichhorst held talks with the nationalists of Bosnia and Herzegovina and urged them to seek a compromise. However, few people believe in the success of this work. Especially considering that earlier Palmer proposed to carry out an exchange of territories between Serbia and Kosovo in order to create ethnically homogeneous regions.
Meanwhile, the situation in BiH is exacerbated by the constant intervention of Croatia and Serbia. In 1991, when Franjo Tudjman and Slobodan Milosevic were presidents of Croatia and Serbia, respectively, the decision was made to partition Bosnia. At the same time, both sides pursued nationalist goals, on the way to which many war crimes were committed.
As for Russia, according to German media, it is seeking to exclude the mention of the UN High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the mandate of the EUFOR international peacekeeping contingent in BiH and is even ready to block the extension of this mandate in the UN Security Council otherwise.
From the point of view of some experts, Moscow’s policy of supporting Serb nationalists can be explained by a desire to prevent Bosnia’s integration into the EU and its entry into NATO.
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