Investors of the TeslaShare (NYSE: A1CX3T) should certainly not complain about the past performance of its papers. The last time there was good news was the announcement of the numbers. And yet there are still potential price drivers that could whip up Tesla’s stock price.
One of them is the sale of a million vehicles in the current year. That would be a double compared to 2020. Among insiders of the Tesla share it is a foregone conclusion that Tesla internally targets this brand. In contrast, the official outlook is rather vague and only predicts one Growth rate of over 50% – So more than 750,000 cars sold.
If Tesla can pulverize its own guidance and analyst expectations, it would increase confidence in the company’s long-term goals. In 2030, the company aims to sell an almost unimaginable 20 million cars. Any step in the right direction is likely to trigger a surge in Tesla stock price.
But how likely are a million vehicle sales in 2021? Can we really look forward to new record highs for Tesla stock? Let’s take a look at the numbers and the drivers.
A million? Its getting close
Comments from Elon Musk from the last analyst conference speak for new record highs for Tesla shares. Accordingly, Tesla currently has the strongest demand in its history. The demand for automobiles is usually rather weak at the current time of the year. Furthermore, Tesla could benefit from a new edition of the electric car tax break in the USA, which is currently in the room. That would significantly boost demand in the home market.
Still, I think Tesla will miss the million mark this year. I don’t see the cause on the demand side, but on the production side. Tesla currently has an annual production capacity of 1.05 million cars. Around a third of this (which is attributable to the Chinese Model Y and the Models S and X) is currently still in the process of ramping up production, and the existing production lines are rarely running at full speed. In other words: Tesla has to pull even more capacity out of its hat.
The company is currently building two more gigafactory factories in Berlin and Austin (Texas), which should start production in the next few months. However, the ramp-up of production is likely to be quite slow: Many new technologies will be used in production. Tesla’s story teaches us that there can be delays here. I therefore expect that both factories will only contribute a few thousand vehicles this year. Not enough to push the total over a million.
The conclusion to the Tesla share
So, I don’t think investors in Tesla stock should have too high hopes that Tesla will double its sales this year. More realistic should be between 800,000 and 900,000 deliveries.
The growth rate would still be well above Tesla’s own outlook. The Tesla share price would therefore presumably honor the achievement of these numbers.
The item Tesla stock price could skyrocket if that goal is met! first appeared on The Motley Fool Deutschland.
Christoph Gössel owns shares in Tesla. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Tesla.
Motley Fool Deutschland 2021
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