Boris Johnson dreams big. Thus he became prime minister, although as a child he wanted to be “the owner of the world.” Last September a member of his cabinet told The Times that the prime minister aspired to surpass Margaret Thatcher, who spent 11 years at the head of the United Kingdom. In an article in this newspaper, Boris Johnson pointed out that he would need a decade to “level” the country. That is, so that the most disadvantaged areas could resurface. This is how he won in the old Labor strongholds. Then I could sing at the top of my voice: «I will survive«.
Not even Margaret Thatcher left voluntarily. After winning for the third time in 1987, Charles Powell, one of his advisers, advised him to retire two years later. “There comes a time when reputation is more important to your party, your cause, and your country than it is to you,” he wrote then. But she clung to office and was executed by the tories. First an unknown Sir Anthony Meyer dared in 1989, but it was Michael Heseltine who achieved it a year later, although he was not his successor. In 1975 it was Margaret Thatcher who challenged Edward Heath. Nor was Winston Churchill spared, in his case due to his physical deterioration.
Not even in the worst of times do they see fit to leave until it is irremediable. Boris Johnson is experiencing the worst crisis these days since he won the elections in December 2019. In just two years he has gone from being the standard-bearer of a new era in the United Kingdom, outside the European Union, to the reveler-in-chief in full pandemic. But he still does not conjugate the verb to resign.
Will he be a victim of his own co-religionists like his predecessors? Boris Johnson was one of the champions of the revolt against his predecessor, Theresa May, encouraged by brexiters like Jacob Rees-Mogg, who stays loyal.
The electoral defeat in North Shropshire, a Conservative stronghold for more than 100 years, last December set off alarm bells. The winner, the Liberal Democrat Helen Morgan, said then: “The citizens have said loud and clear: Boris Johnson, the party is over… Johnson only thinks of him and believes that he is above us. Our country needs leadership and you, Mr. Johnson, are not a leader.”
Conservative media turn their backs on him
From that December 17 to this second week of January, the leadership crisis worsens every day. Every front page of the British press is a slap in the face of whoever was your pretty boy. It was just the Daily Telegraph, the conservative newspaper that paid him £275,000 a year for a weekly column until he joined May’s government, who has revealed this week’s exclusives. It is popularly known as Torygraph for his affinity with the Conservative Party.
In April 2021, just the eve of the funeral for the death of the Duke of Edinburgh, there were two farewell parties until the early hours in Downing Street. The Prime Minister was at Checkers, the country residence of the Prime Minister. His spokesman has had to apologize to the royal family. This medium has also revealed that the person in charge of the anti-Covid measures said goodbye in a big way. It is clear that while the population had to comply with certain rules, the environment of the prime minister continued as if he lived on another planet.
On Wednesday it was the prime minister who apologized to the British before Parliament for the party organized in the garden of 10 Downing Street which he did attend. It was May 20, 2020 and at that time there were people dying alone due to the rules imposed by confinement. This was reminded by Deputy Jim Shanon, whose voice cracked as he recalled how his mother-in-law had died.
Boris Johnson assured parliamentarians that he did not know that the meeting in which he spent 25 minutes, which had been called asking the guests to “bring a drink”, was a party. In someone as given to fun as the British Prime Minister, who was known in his days as a journalist in Brussels for being the last to return home, it sounds like a mockery.
He has asked for time until the ongoing investigation, which is being carried out by the Cabinet Office’s permanent deputy secretary, Sue Gray. The conclusions are expected by the end of next week. If that report confirms that the rules imposed from the prime minister’s headquarters were violated, it will be difficult for the prime minister to survive. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has been confined at home for having maintained contact with a positive.
In free fall in the polls
In that parliamentary session on Wednesday, Labor leader Keir Starmer called for Boris Johnson to resign. Labor is making a comeback in the polls thanks to the Downing Street revelry. In all the polls this week Labor is ahead of the Conservatives, even leading them by 11 points. Worse still are the popularity data of Boris Johnson. It’s even shorter than Theresa May’s at her worst.
“I think nothing like it has been seen since Nixon in losing popularity. This disapproval reminds me a lot of what Nixon suffered with Watergate and the end of Bush Jr.’s second term. The majority of Conservative Party voters, 52%, disapprove of his management. I see it as very difficult for Boris Johnson to survive,” says political scientist Tian Baena. “It is possible that they will wait for the result of the investigation on the parties to be known or at the latest for the local elections in May.”
It reminds me of Nixon’s disapproval of Watergate or at the end of Bush Jr.’s second term. It’s hard to survive”
tin baena, political scientist
For Tian Baena, those who have the most to lose are precisely the fifty deputies who were elected in December 2019 in former Labor strongholds. In many constituencies the lead was slim. «Many are afraid because in 2019 they entered through areas that have never voted conservative and the majorities are scarce. They fear that if Boris Johnson’s disapproval is too great because they are the first to fall. Boris made them win in areas where they were not tories they had not won before and they may be the ones who execute him, ”says Tian Baena.
The British electoral system is uninominal so that citizens vote for the representative of their constituency and whoever has the most support wins. These deputies render accounts weekly when they return to their constituency, so they know perfectly well to what extent citizens are outraged with Partygate and also risk their position.
Douglas Ross, head of the Conservatives in Westminster, has indeed taken a step forward and asked Boris Johnson in Parliament to leave office. “This is not the first time that Ross has risked his career for the good of his party and his country. In May 2020, during a similar scandal over Dominic Cummings’ trip to Barnard Castle, he was the only one who called for political accountability,” writes Michael Crick in the Daily Mail.
Everything indicates, by the way, that Cummings, the architect of the Brexit campaign, with whom Boris Johnson broke up, is behind a large part of the exclusives about the Partygate. It is curious that these celebrations, attended by at least 30 people, were not known until now, but up to a hundred are called.
If the Conservatives secretly voted on Boris Johnson’s continuation, he would clearly lose.”
michael crick, daily mail
Crick reports in your column how the Royal Sutton Coldfield Conservative Association has voted unanimously in favor of Boris Johnson’s departure. It is one of the clear conservative bastions. “If the Conservatives secretly voted on Boris Johnson’s continuation, he would clearly lose. But surprisingly few have the courage to say publicly what they confess in private and those who do are disqualified, “says the columnist for the Mail, another conservative newspaper.
the 54 cards
The key is the 1922 Committee, which brings together conservative deputies called backbenchers, relevant but without government position. In accordance with the statute of the Conservative Party, the motion of censure against the prime minister can be activated by his own party as long as 15% of the deputies request it. Currently there are 360 deputies tories, so at least 54 cards would be needed. Unofficial accounts assure that there are already thirty, although officially there are only five.
Although there is no member of the government who has asked for his resignation, neither have those who aspire to succeed him. Rishi Sunak, Minister of Finance, and Foreign Minister Liz Truss sound. “I see Sunak, who has gained popularity thanks to his starring role in the pandemic. Finance ministers tend to be disliked or ignored, but this is not the case with Sunak”, says Baena.
Both Sunak and Truss rose thanks to the support of Boris Johnson. And they may now be the ones to execute him. Like Boris Johnson did with Theresa May. The Conservative Party does not forgive losers. Survive to? Few bet on her continuing to sing I will survive this summer in Downing Street.
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