This week, the Latvian representative Samanta Tīna and the delegation went to Rotterdam, where they are actively trying out the big stage of “Eurovision” to participate in the second semi-final of the competition in a week, on May 20.
Her song “The Moon is Rising” has attracted wide public attention in a short time and managed to gain ambiguous fame, moreover, according to bookmakers, the chances of a Latvian representative have decreased over the past two months. If, after the song was published in March, Betsafe’s forecast experts estimated the composition’s entry to the final with a 50% probability, now it is only 37%.
“The overall rating of the song is fluctuating, but the trend has remained the same – on average, 8-9 countries will compete for 4 out of 10 finals, including Samantas Tina’s song. Currently, her chances have fallen slightly since March, but it is expected that in the end the final result will be determined by the performance and performance of the song. Samanta has also experienced several large competitions abroad, and this experience can be decisive on the day of the semi-final, ”explains Valters Rozmanis, Betsafe forecasting expert.
In the last two months since the release of Eurovision Song Contest “The Moon is Rising” to the general public, Samanta Tina has been accused of adapting the song to the Eurovision Song Contest, playing on popular themes such as women’s diversity, strength and independence. The artist herself has immediately indicated that the song was not made with a calculation of a specific “Eurovision” format. “I’m definitely not the one who creates something to try to hit someone,” the singer emphasized in her reply.
In total, 17 compositions will participate in the second semi-final of the song contest, and 10 of them will enter the final. The chance of winning the song “The Moon is Rising” in the semi-finals from the bookmaker’s point of view is assessed with only a 1% probability, but the chances of five other songs from the same semi-final are equally low. Meanwhile, Swiss singer Gjon’s Tears stands out as a clear favorite of experts in the second semifinal with the experienced song “Tout I’Univers”, for which “Betsafe” bookmakers predict a victory with a stable 47% probability.
From the bookmakers’ point of view, the main contenders for the victory in the final of the “Eurovision” competition have remained the same and only changed places. Currently, the main favorite of “Betsafe” experts consider the French singer Barbara Pravi with a sweet song about self-acceptance called “Voilà”. For this composition, victory is predicted with a 22% probability. By contrast, Malta’s Destiny with the composition “Je Me Casse” is in second place with a 21% probability of winning, while the already mentioned Swiss artist Gjon’s Tears is in the third place in the list – his victory is assessed with a 17% probability.
Experts predict that Latvia’s chances of winning the competition finals are quite slim. There is only a 0.2% probability for such a scenario, but according to bookmakers’ estimates, our neighbor Lithuania is expected to have much greater success this year. The eccentric pop rock band “The Roop” with the song “Discoteque” is among the top 10 favorites who claim to win the competition finals. Betsafe assigns a 3% probability to such a scenario, with a 94% probability of predicting Lithuania’s stable entry into the Eurovision semi-finals. On the other hand, the chances of Estonian performer Uku Suviste to win the competition are assessed much more modestly – only by 0.3%.
65. The semi-finals of the international Eurovision Song Contest will take place in person at the Ahoy Arena in Rotterdam on 18 and 20 May, and the final of the competition is scheduled for Saturday, 22 May. As in both semi-finals, spectators will be able to take part in it, presenting a confirmation of a negative Covid-19 test. Tenderers will also be required to take a number of tests on a regular basis, and delegations from each country will not be allowed to meet.
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