October 22, 2024 21:45 English Championship (League 1), round 13
Birmingham
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–
?
Bolton
In one of the meetings of the English Championship (League 1) on October 22 at 21:45 (Moscow time) at the St. Andrews Stadium, Birmingham and Bolton will meet. Read on for a free match forecast (winner, score, total) from Betting Tools. Bookmakers are betting on the Blues to win – the odds for this result are at 1.88. You can bet on the guests winning with a quote of 3.76. And bets on a draw result are accepted with odds of 3.57. Bookmakers believe that there will be a lot of goals in the match: bets on a total of more than 2.5 goals are accepted with odds of 1.77. Bets on TM 2.5 are accepted with a quote of 2.04.
Birmingham – Bolton. Key facts about the match
- Birmingham played against Lincoln in their last match in the English Championship (League 1) on October 19. The match ended in his victory with a score of 3:1 (Keshi Anderson scored for Birmingham). In the five previous matches of the tournament, Birmingham won four matches, losing only once.
- Bolton played Burton in their last match in the English Championship (League 1) on October 19. The match ended with a score of 2:1 in his favor. Bolton are unbeaten in five matches in a row, winning four and drawing once. In each of the last 3 matches involving Bolton, more than two goals were scored.
- The hosts play approximately the same in defense and attack (defense rating 1182, attack rating 1280). The visitors are better at attacking than defending, with a defensive rating of 713 and an attack rating of 1171.
- The ratio between the hosts’ attack rating and the guests’ defense rating is 1.80. The expected number of goals for an attacking team with this ratio is 1.99.
- The ratio between the visiting team’s attack rating and the home team’s defense rating is 0.99. With this ratio, the expected number of goals for the attacking team in the match is 1.26.
- In the last five meetings involving Birmingham, it was profitable to bet on the Blues to win (+43.0%) and on the total under 2.5 goals (+19.0%).
- In the last five meetings involving Bolton, bets on total over 2.5 goals (+40.0%) and on team victory (+34.0%) were profitable.
Birmingham – Bolton. Statistics forecasts
Victory Prediction:
home win (Win1) BET
Goal forecast:
total over 2.5 goals (TB 2.5) BET
Forecasts for the match are generated using machine learning: the predictive model was trained on a large sample of played matches and now, based on the data received, generates forecasts for upcoming matches taking into account the input parameters. One of the key factors for making a forecast is the ratio of the teams’ attack and defense ratings.
Odds estimate for the match Birmingham – Bolton
A score greater than 1 means the odds are underestimated and the bet is mathematically profitable. If the score is less than 1, the odds are overrated and the bet is mathematically unprofitable. Predictions for the match are formed taking into account the odds estimates, but this is not the decisive factor. For this reason, sometimes a forecast can be made for an outcome whose coefficient estimate is below 1.
Profitability of bets on team matches:
Birmingham
Bolton
Winning rates +43.0% +34.0%
Bets on a draw -100.0% -3.0%
Losing bets -13.0% -100.0%
Rates on TM 2.5 +19.0% -58.0%
Rates for TB 2.5 -29.0% +40.0%
Bookmaker points 9.8 10.7
Actual points 12 13
Note: Bookmaker points – the number of points that a team should have scored based on bookmaker odds in the last five matches (or a smaller number if the team does not have five matches with odds). Calculation using the formula: 3/kt for a win + 1/kt for a draw. Actual points – the actual number of points a team has scored in its last five matches (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw).
Note: the average team statistics for the last 5 matches of the tournament are shown against all opponents (for the “All opponents” tab) and against opponents of the same level as the current one based on bookmaker odds (for the “Same level opponents” tab).
Birmingham. Advantages over your opponent in statistics: higher percentage of long-range shots (38.0% versus 29.9%); fewer missed shots (7.6 versus 11.4); higher percentage of blocked shots (39.5% vs. 22.8%); more corners per match (6.8 vs. 6.4).
Bolton. Advantages over the opponent in statistics: more shots on goal (13.4 versus 10.0); higher accuracy of shots on goal (38.8% versus 26.0%); higher percentage of shots from the penalty area (70.1% versus 62.0%); higher percentage of ball possession (57.6 vs. 46.6); higher passing accuracy (79.8 versus 72.4); fewer fouls per match (12.0 versus 14.0).
Favorite/Underdog. How will the game go?
Based on the current odds on the winner of the match, Birmingham are classified as A- teams, while Bolton are classified as C+ teams. Over the last 50 matches of the tournament between opponents of such classes, the A- class team won 58% of the matches, 26% of the matches ended in a draw and the C+ class team won 16% of the matches.
A- Favorite of the match. It may be significantly superior to its opponent in class, but winning is far from guaranteed. The odds for winning are in the range of 1.60 – 2.00.
C+ Underdog of the match. A draw can be considered a good result. The odds for winning are in the range of 3.70 – 5.50.
Birmingham ( A- )
Bolton ( C+ )
Explanation of the predicted course of the game between the teams Birmingham and Bolton: Based on the available statistics of the history of meetings of similar teams, it was concluded that the percentage probability of winning in regular time for the Birmingham team is 58%. The team’s chances of winning are 16%. The probability of a draw is 26%.
