His experience from working closely with him Donald Trumpwhom he had prevented at the last minute from withdrawing the US from NATO, recalls in his interview with “Vima” the John BoltonNational Security Advisor under Trump, Under Secretary of State under Bush Jr., Under Secretary of Justice under Reagan and US Ambassador to the UN in 2005-6. Bolton, who spoke to The Step by phone on Thursday, is considered a stalwart of American foreign policy and one of the “adults in the room” while Trump was in the White House.
What was it like working with Donald Trump?
“I believed that Trump would be influenced, like all his predecessors, by the gravity of the responsibility of his position, by the seriousness of the consequences that his decisions would have, especially in the area of national security, and that he would ‘discipline’ the thinking ultimately leading to coherent policies. But I soon discovered that the gravity of all these issues did not “discipline” him. Trump doesn’t have a good grasp of international affairs, he doesn’t have a political philosophy, he doesn’t think in policy terms. His decisions have transactional goals, are episodic and pass through the prism of whether they benefit him. With all these elements, it is difficult to carry out a coherent national strategy.”
What is the main stake of the upcoming election for the US and the world?
“Unfortunately, we have two candidates who, for different reasons each, are truly unqualified to be president of the United States. This means that whoever wins the election, the US will have ineffective leadership in an increasingly dangerous and challenging world. This is definitely a bad development for the US and for the free world.”
How do you see the future of the Republican Party, which Trump has “held hostage” since 2016?
“I think a significant part of the party remains Reaganite, especially when it comes to national security policy. There may be differences in individual issues but the principles remain the same. Many Republicans will begrudgingly vote for Trump in this election as well because they know he won’t take the “Reagan” approach, but they’ll vote for him anyway because they feel they’re more worried about the fallout if they voted for Harris. So I believe that whether Trump wins or loses in November, there will be a battle for the soul of the party. If Trump loses the election, this battle will be more intense.”
Do you think Trump will lose the election?
“The battle is played point by point. He can win, but he can certainly lose. As the pollsters emphasize, the result will be decided by the voters who will decide at the last minute who they will vote for.”
If Harris wins, will there be bloodshed?
“The question of whether Trump will accept any defeat remains open.”
Trump has already declared that he will not accept defeat in the election.
“That doesn’t necessarily mean bloodshed will follow. I don’t think this time he’ll be able to have the influence he had in 2020. But then he was still sitting in the Oval Office, and this year he’ll be sitting in his pool at Mar-a-Lago.”
How is it possible that a man who almost staged a coup after the previous elections and has meanwhile been convicted by the American courts to claim the White House?
“Many find it unbelievable that he has received the Republican presidential nomination again. This is a problem of American politics, which of course has not been solved.”
What are the risks to the international security edifice from the isolationism that Trump is expected to introduce?
“Trump, as I said, is not coherent in his thinking but his instincts are in favor of isolationism while many of his close associates and advisers are followers of isolationism and in fact analyze it more consistently than Trump does. Therefore the risk, for example, that he will take the USA out of NATO is very great. It would certainly be a catastrophic mistake, but the risk of it happening is real.”
What exactly happened at the 2018 NATO summit in Brussels?
“Trump was determined to withdraw the US from NATO. Fortunately we caught up with him and he never came so close to achieving it again because those of us surrounding him were on hand to prevent it. But in a second term for Trump, in which I expect his naysayers to be at the forefront, the chances of him pulling the US out of NATO are very high.”
How should the US handle Russian expansionism?
“It is very important to show that an unprovoked attack on European soil should have no chance of success. In 1945 we said that we would not let it happen again and this is what is happening today in Ukraine. The effects go beyond Europe. The Chinese are watching with interest, and their conclusion, unfortunately, may be that since we are not ready to stop an attack on European soil, we probably won’t stop China if it attacks Taiwan either.”
Will US taxpayers continue to be willing to pay billions of dollars for Ukraine?
“We probably won’t know this if Trump is elected because the most likely thing is that he himself will start to limit aid to Ukraine. He says that if elected, he will reach a deal on Ukraine within 24 hours. I don’t believe this is possible. On the contrary, the chances of him reducing or even stopping aid to Ukraine are very high.”
If you were the National Security Advisor today, what would be your exit strategy from the war in Ukraine?
“For the last two and a half years, the US and NATO have not provided Ukraine with the help it should have, and that is one reason why the war is at a standstill today. I believe it is very critical to defeat Russian aggression. This will not happen overnight, but once it becomes clear to Moscow that its aggression will not work, then diplomacy will have an opportunity. Moscow will only come to the negotiating table if it begins to back down in Ukraine and realizes that if it continues the war, things will get worse for itself. If Trump wins the election, I think he will allow Russia to win the war, while if Harris wins, she will probably continue Biden’s policies, which is also not very good news.”
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