BMKG: El Nino Weakens in Indonesia, Impact on Rainfall in February 2024

KOMPAS.com – The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said that El Nino conditions in Indonesia are starting to weaken.

El Nino is a phenomenon of warming sea surface temperatures which has an impact on the weather climate in Indonesia.

BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said that El Nino conditions in Indonesia will begin to weaken towards the beginning of February 2024.

“It’s true, El Nino is weakening,” he said, when contacted by Kompas.com, Tuesday (30/1/2024).

Separately, BMKG noted that the El Nino value indicated by the ENSO index at NINO 3.4 reached +1.18 (normal ± 0.5).

So, what is the impact of El Nino on potential rainfall in Indonesia in February 2024?

Also read: When will the 2024 Rainy Season Peak? This is the BMKG forecast

Also read: BMKG says El Nino will continue until 2024, will Indonesia’s temperature be hotter?

Potential rain in February 2024

BMKG Deputy for Meteorology Guswanto explained that the weakening of El Nino does not affect rainfall in Indonesia.

For your information, the El Nino phenomenon has an impact on reducing rainfall in Indonesia.

“The ENSO index at NINO 3.4 is +1.18, which means it is not significant for the increase in rain in Indonesia,” he said, when contacted by Kompas.com, Tuesday (30/1/2024).

Referring to analysis and monitoring of the latest weather data, BMKG stated that the potential for rain with light to heavy intensity could still occur in several regions of Indonesia during February 2024.

In fact, Guswanto said, until February 28 2024, high intensity rain is predicted to occur in several areas such as:

• Banten (118 mm)
• Bali (73.9 mm)
• East Nusa Tenggara (70.0 mm)
• DKI Jakarta (62 mm)
• IN Yogyakarta (56.4 mm).

The potential for rain with varying intensities in Indonesia is predicted to continue until the early period of February 2024.

This condition is triggered by Asian Munson activity, equatorial Rossby and Kelvin wave activity, as well as the formation of turning patterns and wind encounters.

Also read: The peak of the rainy season occurs at the same time as El Nino, what are the impacts?

Peak rainy season 2024

Meanwhile, Guswanto revealed that the peak of the 2024 rainy season is expected to occur in February 2024.

From January to February 2024, 55 percent of Indonesia’s territory has entered the season zone.

The seasonal zone is an area where the average rainfall pattern has a clear difference between the dry season period and the rainy season period.

Several areas that will enter the peak of the rainy season in February 2024 are as follows:

• West Jambi
• Southern part of South Sumatra
• Most of Java Island
• Bali
• West Nusa Tenggara
• East Nusa Tenggara
• Parts of Central Kalimantan
• Parts of South Kalimantan
• Parts of northern Sulawesi
• Parts of North Maluku
• Southern West Papua
• West Papua.

Also read: BMKG Prediction, Early February 2024 Many Areas Hit by Rain and Rob Floods

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2024-01-30 14:30:00


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