Blue rises $15 and sets a new record

This week, the pax exchange rate that free dollars have been going through since the beginning of September. Although the Government announced the implementation of the dollar Dead cow for the oil sector, a measure that seeks to calm financial exchange rates with more currency supply given the end of the agricultural dollar (tomorrow), electoral uncertainty and macroeconomic imbalances weigh more. With double-digit inflation, more pesos in the streets and pre-election dollarization, Today the blue hits a new historical maximum value in nominal terms.

This Thursday, the caves and trees of the City Buenos Aires were once again at the center of the scene. The parallel dollar is sold at $788, a daily rise of $15 (+1.9%). This is the highest nominal price on record, exceeding the $780 marked during the August exchange rate.

“Free dollars react to a reality that remains complicated and with a reserved prognosis. The imminence of the elections encourages dollarization and that affects prices. There are still many pesos in the market, the stimulus plans announced and implemented indicate that issuance as the main source of financing will continue to fuel inflation. All stimulus plans can collaborate to keep prices limited, but in the face of a complicated panorama I do not think it will be enough,” said Gustavo Quintana, operator of Cambios PR.

However, when taking perspective and observing the value of blue in real terms, The current price is still below other recent peaks. For example, due to the strong inflation that occurred in the last month, the $780 that it marked a month and a half ago would be equivalent to $931 today, according to estimates by financial analyst Salvador Vitelli. Compared to October 2020, when the parallel touched $195, it would be about $1,087 today.

“These increases seem to be responding to a dollarization trend in portfolios, less than a month before the elections. Expectations are different compared to PASO, because at that time there was a consensus that Together for Change was going to do quite well. Now, we have a completely different dynamic and perspective, that paradigm was broken. “The market is anticipating a possible correction of the exchange rate or a dollarization of the economy.”considered Vitelli.

The upward trend is also observed in the dollar counted with settlement (CCL) “free”. Today, it registers an advance of $25 and is positioned in the $814,58 (+3.2%). In this way, it also broke a new nominal record (previously it was $802.48, on August 29), despite the fact that the agricultural dollar is in force until tomorrow and on Monday the Vaca Muerta dollar would begin to operate.

Both Government measures seek to reassure financial dollars, since they add currency supply to the market. Both agricultural and hydrocarbon exporters have the option of selling 25% of what was settled to the CCL, as long as the remaining 75% is channeled through the official dollar (stable at $350 after the post-PASO devaluation).

In parallel, the initiatives allow the Central Bank (BCRA) to add reserves and increase its “firepower” to intervene in the dollar MEP. Although this price is trading at $705.20 in the first operations of the wheel, a jump of $15 compared to the previous close (+2.2%), the trend usually reverses at the end of the day. This happens due to official interventions that are carried out through the bond market.

“The Vaca Muerta dollar will have a similar scheme to the soybean dollar 4, a measure that took some pressure off the market in September. However, the Central Bank was unable to accumulate foreign currency and make net reserves increase: They are currently in negative territory by about US$5 billion. This situation is due to the meager purchases that the BCRA has in the official exchange system, while then it turns around and intervenes. Yesterday, for example, we estimate that it allocated US$52 million to try to contain the MEP. The exchange situation remains fragile and will continue to be so. The Vaca Muerta dollar will allow you to remove your head underwater, but not much more. Other factors, such as dollarization pressure, weigh on the CCL,” Vitelli added.

At the other end of the exchange market is the wholesale exchange rate, stable at $350 since Monday postPASO. That day, the Central Bank validated a 17% devaluation. And, although prices in the economy continue to advance, the Government affirms that it will remain at that value until mid-November. The gap compared to blue is 123%.

For the second consecutive round, the main Argentine stock index is trading upwards and trying to compensate for the declines it registered throughout September. Today, the S&P Merval shows a rise of 2.7% and is positioned at 572,170 points, although when looking at the path it took in the month it continues to be down 12.5%.

In the main panel, BBVA leads the wheel with an increase of 6.4%, followed by Cresud (+4.3%), Central Puerto (+4.1%), Transener (+3.6%), the Banco Macro (+2.9%), Ternium (+2.8%) and Transportadora de Gas del Norte (+2.7%).

In line with the good mood that is presented globally, Argentine stocks listed on Wall Street (ADR) are moving in positive territory. The papers of Central Puerto rise 3.1%, followed by Cresud (+2,5%), e go (+2,4%).

Instead, the bonuses of the last debt swap are dyed red on the outside. The Bonares sink up to 3.12% (AL30D) and the Globales, 2.56% (GD30D). Consequently, the risk country It climbs 33 units and is positioned at 2,432 basis points, the highest value since June.