At the end of September, Germany completely abandoned gas supplies from Russia, having managed to replace Russian exports with pipeline gas from Norway and the Netherlands, LNG and coal supplies. Interviewed by the agency Bloomberg Analysts believe that the German authorities managed to “survive” this winter without Russian energy resources, but giving them up in the long run will require solving new problems.
According to MET International energy trader Simone Turri, the main problem for Germany in the coming years will be the purchase of LNG as a basic source. “Building LNG terminals without signing new contracts does not solve the problem,” Ms. Turri said.
The need to conclude long-term contracts for LNG imports is explained by increased competition in the natural gas market. It is expected that in the next three years the amount of LNG in the world will not increase much, but the competition in this market will continue to grow.
The main threat to European importers could be the recovery of the Chinese economy, followed by an increase in demand for LNG.
A potential factor in reducing pipeline gas supplies to Germany could be the closure of the Groningen field in the Netherlands by 2024 for environmental reasons. It produces most of the energy supplied to Germany.
Among the challenges for Germany, Bloomberg also calls “coal rehabilitation” and unstable weather conditions. According to the agency, now Germany generates more than a third of the total electricity from coal, which results in political costs for the country’s government.
On February 20, the President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Marcel Fratscher, estimated the process of transformation of the German energy market against the backdrop of sanctions at €100 billion. In his opinion, in the coming years, the costs of the German government and business for innovation will continue to grow, which is necessary to accelerate the transformation processes.
About the refusal of Germany from Russian energy resources – in the material “Kommersant” “Germany has become a buyer of LNG.”
