/ world today news/ Regardless of the pessimistic forecasts for the future of the Russian currency, financial analysts believe that the ruble continues to strengthen, writes Bloomberg. The drop in oil prices to a six-year low, which was the main reason for the weakening of the ruble, is now on the back burner, and the ceasefire in Ukraine is becoming a major factor, notes the American edition, quoted by Lifenews.ru.
To assess the movement of the ruble, investors should monitor the events in Eastern Ukraine. The prolonged ceasefire leads to softening and lifting of Western sanctions, and oil is no longer cheap, says Simon Quijano-Evans, director of emerging markets research at the London branch of Commerzbank AG, adding that he expects the ruble to strengthen by 3 .9% in the current quarter and raising the rate of local bonds.
By the end of June, the ruble will strengthen by 5.1% against the dollar and the exchange rate will become 55.4 rubles per dollar, predicts the chief economist of the London-based Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Tatiana Orlova.
Fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate are the main concern for analysts. Many of them had predicted that in February-March the contraction of the Russian economy would be 2.8%, but in fact it was only 0.4%, notes Bloomberg.
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