Six years ago, after endless days of negotiations, Laurent Fabius entered the great hall at Le Bourget. The Minister of Foreign Affairs at the time walks with determined step towards the desk. In front of delegations from 195 countries and cameras from all over the world, he is about to pronounce these words that everyone is waiting for. After a short preamble, he declares, in a deep voice: “I see no objection in the room (…) I declare the Paris agreement for the climate adopted”. The end of a diplomatic marathon. The following ovation will last for several minutes. History will retain an unprecedented consensus since Kyoto for climate protection. The success of the COP21 organized in Paris, six years after the Copenhagen fiasco, is historic. But, as often, the legend overshadows many details. Each COP, since the premiere in 1995 in Berlin, hides its little secrets, its backstage arrangements.
Matthieu Orphelin, now environmentalist deputy, was in 2015 spokesperson for the Nicolas Hulot Foundation. He remembers that moment with a smile. “At that point, we are in the last moments. We are already several hours late to announce the final declaration. And we learn that a country, Nicaragua, does not want to ratify the draft agreement. Fabius knows that”. According to tradition, each country has the right to oppose the text, even at the last moment, by raising its hand, which makes its adoption as it is impossible since a consensus is needed between all parties. “But he reads his text, without batting an eyelid, without taking his eyes off his notes. So he does not see the hand of the Nicaraguan delegate rise and say: ‘The Paris Agreement is adopted.’ to see! A “little string”, in the words of the deputy, which made it possible to avoid a failure of the negotiations. After the heavy applause of the room, Nicaragua finally takes the floor, as it is customary, and says that ‘he is against this agreement, but it is too late. Laurent Fabius’ hammer has already struck his desk. “Then there is the political weight that comes into play. If it had been the United States, I am not not sure that Fabius would have played like that, “says Matthieu Orphelin.
Without a doubt, the COP26 which takes place from October 31 to November 12 in Glasgow, will experience, at one time or another, a rebound. Each COP has lived through it. In 2009, the world is expecting a lot from the COP15 negotiations in Copenhagen. After days of negotiations, those responsible are deadlocked. No agreement seems possible. In the last hours, François Gemenne, member of the IPCC and present that year, attends a surreal scene. “The Danish Prime Minister is sweating profusely, and is trying everything to pull off an agreement, even a minimalist one. He then says that we are going to vote, which is contrary to the elementary rule of the COP, namely that the agreement must be accepted by all states without exception. The audience does not understand, and, faced with the evidence, the Argentinian negotiator gets carried away. She gets up and knocks with all her might on her desk with the promontory on which is written ‘ Argentina “. To the point of opening the palm of her hand. Silence in the room. She shouts then:” This blood is that of my people which flows by your fault “”. The researcher remembers a moment of “intense dramaturgy” which marked him.
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“Tyranny of consensus”
If the world generally focuses on the opening and closing of COPs – with the inevitable final declaration that sets the course for the next few years – negotiators get agitated behind the scenes for days on end. Outside of the negotiation rooms, some of which are closed to journalists and NGOs alike, we talk everywhere. Everyone strives to convey their concepts, and in terms of their choice. It is difficult to put a text on paper that works for all parties, rich and poor countries, oil countries or not. Matthieu Orphelin calls this the “tyranny of consensus”. However, not all players are created equal. “The UN finances the arrival of only two negotiators per country, reveals François Gemenne. If large countries like France can take a hundred people in their delegation, this is not the case for small countries”. In addition, developed States generally have seasoned negotiators, who have had many COPs in the past and have a perfect command of extremely technical subjects.
In detail, the states are divided into coalitions with strange names. For example, there is the “Umbrella Group” or “Umbrella Group” made up of developed countries that are not part of the European Union – including the United States, Canada and Australia. Or the “High ambition coalition”, born during the COP21 to promote high ambitions in climate matters in the Paris Agreement, and the “G77”, made up, as its name does not indicate, of 133 countries in development. France is in the European Union group. Alongside the States, other actors have an observer role: companies, grouped together within the BINGO group, environmental non-governmental organizations, unions, indigenous peoples, local communities, etc. For COP26, for example, 25,000 people from all walks of life are expected on site.
“If the Pope agrees to come to you, will you lift this blockage? The country replied in the affirmative”
The role of negotiators is therefore crucial in securing an ambitious agreement, but it also requires a strong political will, and a diplomatic impetus that would be just as important. In 2015, during COP21, the United States blocked the draft declaration because they did not want a strong commitment to financing the ecological transition in favor of poor countries. “Developing countries insisted on having the word ‘shall’ in the text. The Americans wanted a ‘should’. Negotiations went on for hours, days, on that little word.” , remembers Matthieu Orphelin. In the end, the United States won the game. After this episode, a joke attributed to Laurent Fabius even circulated under the mantle: “It is no longer the Marshall Islands but the Marshould Islands”. Developed countries finally pledged to pay the poorest $ 100 billion a year. But, six years later, the account is not there. This will be a key point of discussions at COP26.
For this event, Boris Johnson also hopes for an ambitious text, and has been pushing in this direction for many months. But sometimes the line between success and failure is thin. Also at COP21, one country once again blocked any consensus. France has therefore taken matters into its own hands: “If the Pope agrees to come to you, will you sign? The country replied in the affirmative. The negotiations were able to continue”, remembers Matthieu Orphelin. A given for a rendering.
A hug to tear off a historic agreement
In every COP since 1995, the first week is very technical and the second is more political. With a staging, a dramatization pushed to the extreme until Friday evening and the announcement of the final declaration. But not all of these peaks are created equal. Some are more technical, others more political. The one that takes place in Glasgow will certainly be very political, with the stakes of raising the climate objectives adopted during the Paris Agreement, and of financing developing countries. Themes that risk turning the negotiations into a standoff. Laurence Tubiana, French ambassador in charge of climate negotiations at COP21, knows something about it. Friday has already passed, and no announcement has been made. At 5:30 am on Saturday morning, the arbitrations are closed and she begins her tour of the delegations to announce the draft agreement. “I start with the toughest group, that of the oil countries, she recalls. I read the text to them in one go. Then, a great silence that seems to me to last for hours invades the room. , telling them that’s all I can do. ” Another endless silence. The diplomat cracks, and launches: “It does not matter, I pack up, we will not come to an agreement”. She turns around, ready to head for the door when she hears footsteps in front of her. She then feels a friendly embrace. “Ok, we’re following you,” an ambassador told him. The former president of the High Council for the Climate has emotion in her voice, a smile on her lips at the evocation of this memory. “We realize in these moments that it is possible to go beyond realpolitik when the stakes exceed our personal interests. I know that cynics always win, but there are times when we can break the armor “.
If the COP has its faults, its masked exchanges, its corridor negotiations, it remains “the only framework where the world is moving forward at the same pace for the climate”, according to Mathieu Orpelin. Still, the optimist is sorely lacking for the opening of this summit. Its president, Briton Alok Sharma, ruled on October 23 that it would be “definitely more difficult to reach a global agreement” than in 2015. The objective is ambitious and necessary: to contain global warming below 1, 5 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, threshold set at COP21. But COP26 is in reality a continuation of the Paris summit. It must translate this agreement into action, make it concrete. “It’s like we’ve come to the end of the exam and only the toughest questions are left, and we’re running out of time with the exam ending in 30 minutes,” said Alok Sharma.
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Especially since the negotiations will be complicated by the evolution of the geopolitical context, while London and Washington maintain more strained relations than before with China and Russia, whose two presidents should not go to the summit. Since the signing of the Paris Agreements in 2015, the transition to a cleaner economy and energy has progressed, but too slowly. Laurence Tubiana hopes, however, that this COP will “breathe new life into climate diplomacy”. Hopefully, this time again, the cynics don’t win.
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