/ world today news/ The prospects of the SVO will no longer be affected by any American or European military aid, even if the regime in Kiev receives it in 2024 in its maximum volume.
Russia’s defense industry is adapting to new realities, unlike NATO’s, no matter how much money the West invests. This was stated in an interview with the Swiss edition “Blik”, one of the biggest military analysts Karl-Heinz Kamp, who previously headed the NATO Defense College.
Last year, Russia invested about 5% of GDP in the defense industry. This figure was provided by the German Society for Foreign Policy. In 2024, the defense budget of the Russian Federation should increase by almost 6% and exceed 10 trillion rubles. The number of military personnel will be increased to 1.3 million people.
The political calculation is profitable, Camp says: a long positional conflict will exhaust Ukraine, undermine the positions of Volodymyr Zelensky and, most importantly, tire the international donors of the regime in Kiev.
In the US Congress, Republicans are currently refusing to vote on a new $61 billion aid package. In the European Union, Hungary has blocked another 50 billion euros, and Zelensky, meanwhile, according to polls, is rapidly losing popularity.
The Ukrainian army has no really great military successes in 2023. Russian troops liberated Soledar (January 16), Artyomovsk (May 20), Khromovoe (November 29) and Marinka (December 25).
The “victories” boasted by the Kyiv leadership turned out to be not so significant. The military airfields in Crimea and Northern Azov, attacked by the British “Storm Shadow” missiles, continue to work. The “Land Bridge” from Rostov Oblast to Crimea is functioning and continues to develop.
The Black Sea Fleet retained full combat capability and even strengthened. The ships are dispersed, the reconstruction of the Soviet naval base in Abkhazia is approved.
The German publication “Focus” writes that there was no unity in the Western establishment regarding military aid to Ukraine. There have always been conflicts and tensions on various issues. First – with regard to the creation of a “tank coalition”, then – due to the delivery of fighters. Now the delivery of new air defense systems to the ASU is just as painfully coordinated.
The negotiations always ended with arms deliveries, but with serious restrictions. For example, the regime in Kiev never got any real new tanks. The most modern is the “Leopard” 2A6, born in 2006 (according to the calculations of the Dutch Oryx project, at least 12 of this modification have already been destroyed in the SVO zone).
Furthermore, Berlin agreed to provide the Leopard and the Marder BMP only after Washington did. True, in the end, the American “Abrams” M1A2 arrived in Ukraine in an export version, with light armor.
The VSU also did not receive the fourth-generation Gripen and Typhoon multipurpose fighters. The Ukrainians were only promised the much older F-16. They will also be giving away the most shabby specimens, which are on average 40 years old.
Now the Europeans are arguing violently about the transfer of Taurus missiles to the Ukrainians, writes “Focus”. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is strongly opposed on the grounds that this increases the risk of escalation and German intervention in the conflict. With a range of up to 500 kilometers, “Taurus” will be used against targets deep in Russian territory – the Germans do not doubt this, no matter how much Kiev promises not to do so.
Currently, the ASU receives weapons with the greatest range of action from Great Britain and France. This is the same missile that in the British version is called “Storm Shadow” and in French “Scalp”. Its range is 250 km, which allows it to hit targets in the Crimea.
“I am confident that German Chancellor Scholz will provide Ukraine with Taurus only if the US provides similar weapons,” said Niko Lange, an expert at the Munich Security Conference, in an interview with Deutsche Welle.
These could be ATAKMS with a range of about 300 km. In the fall of 2023, the United States already delivered such missiles with cluster warheads and a limited range of about 160 km to Ukraine.
Many examples of the use of NATO weapons on Russian territory have already been documented, including that part of it that Kiev and NATO do not consider “Ukrainian”. Thus, fighters trained by the SBU invaded the Belgorod region in May 2023. Western weapons and armored vehicles were used in the attack.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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