<오늘의 미나리>
1. Macro
◆Stock market started mixed
Nasdaq downtrend continues
Bond yields rise after anxiety eases
10-year Treasury 3.5% 2-year Treasury 4%
Crude Oil Recovers to $70, Gas Falls
Bitcoin down to $26,000
◆Wholesale/Retail Inventory/Case Sealer Index/Richmond Yeoneun Index
US February wholesale inventory +0.2% MoM
Non-vehicle retail inventory rose 0.4%
House price index rose 0.2% in January
Expectations fell 0.2%
U.S. home prices fall
The eastern region rose slightly
Case-Shiller index falls for 7th month in a row
House prices in 20 cities in January -0.2% MoM
Mortgage rate rises, brake on house prices
Seattle and Los Angeles fell more than 1% year over year
◆Japan CPI/Bank of England Governor/Remarks by Lagarde
Japanese inflation below expectations
Core CPI 2.7% (expected 3.5%)
“Withdrawal of monetary easing, reaffirmed that it is premature”
Digital yen pilot from April
Bailey, Bank of England Governor, “The Bank of England is healthy”
“Headwinds that could affect the next interest rate decision”
“Monetary Policy Decisions Considering Credit Conditions”
The market is expected to add 25bp.. Possibility of freezing
◆BlackRock “There is no interest rate cut within the year”..Wall Street market analysis
BlackRock: No interest rate cut this year
“The Fed will move contrary to what the market thinks.”
BlackRock Underweights Equities in Developed Countries
Preference for inflation-linked bonds
JP Morgan Asset Management also temporarily lowers US stocks
“Profit expectations need to be improved … Overweight Europe”
JP Morgan: “There’s still a lot of work to be done on banking issues”
The risk of contagion is low… Investment grade bonds preferred
Controversy over the possibility of an interest rate cut
TD Securities and Double Line still ‘cut interest rates’
FED Watch forecasts 55.7% freeze
2 cuts after 3 freezes until July?
◆The view that technology stocks, which have been strong recently, have become “expensive”
FactSet Nasdaq P/E 25.4x..S&P 17.6x
Pandemic peak +48%, now 44% more expensive
Considering the 10-year average of around 20%, is it overrated?
BCA Research “Mega-cap regulation also negatively affects stock prices”
Short-term rally possible, but considering credit crunch
◆Smeed Capital “Be greedy when you are afraid”
“Half of the bear market passed…Considering the barrier to entry”
“Energy, shopping malls, housing stocks to pay attention”
Possession of OXY, CVX, SPG, NVR, DHI, etc.
Congressional testimony by Vice Chairman Michael Barr
Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chairman for Financial Oversight
Attending Congress on the 28th “The banking system is healthy and flexible”
Q&A about the banking crisis
Hints for Fed rate hike in May?
FED Watch forecasts 55.7% freeze
2 cuts after 3 freezes until July?
Crude Oil Outlook
mitigating economic downturn prospects
Crude oil prices showing slight rise
Türkiye suspends exports of Kurdish-Mediterranean pipeline
6% increase in Chinese crude oil imports
OPEC+ likely to maintain oil production next week
Saudi Arabia “needs stable supply in 2023”
2. News
The Crack of Charles Schwab?
Charles Schwab Averted Crisis Signs of Crack?
Long-term concerns about soundness come out
Unrealized loss of $29 billion last year
Customer account withdrawals continue at high interest rates
Bettinger CEO “Safe even if 100% of the deposit is lost”
Wealth Logic “High-interest short-term money movement appears”
Investigation into dividend tax avoidance by European banks
European banks, this time under investigation by prosecutors
Societe Generale, BNP Paribas raid
HSBC, NAtixis also under investigation
Dividend payment fraud, money laundering allegations
Short-term stock transfer to overseas investors
Dividend tax avoidance with ‘CUM-CUM’?
“Wide prevalence in interbank transactions”
Possible class fine of 1 billion euros
◆Alibaba spin-off
Alibaba (BABA) splits up and pursues its own IPO
Divided into 6 groups
Cloud, Logistics, Digital Media, etc.
Promotion of independent listing by unit
“Shareholder Value Creation and Market Competitiveness Enhancement”
BABA stock soars before open
◆Meta, Bonus Cuts/Elimination of the Disney Metaverse Department
Meta, cuts in bonuses following headcount cuts
Bonus rate after March 85% -> 65%
“Increase employee evaluation to twice a year”
11,000 layoffs in November followed by 10,000 additional job cuts
Disney shuts down metaverse division, lays off 50 people
Suspension of IP Utilization Metaverse Project Promotion
Bob Chapek is “The Next Generation Storytelling Pioneer”
In order to reduce costs, reduce investment
Massive restructuring kicked off this week
Hiding 7,000 people, saving $5 billion
Lyft’s new CEO appointment
Lyft co-founder steps down
David Reisher as the new CEO
4Q earnings shock lift
Will the CEO change succeed?
Coins hit by Binance sanctions
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission files suit against Binance
“Violation of derivatives regulations..Not registered as an institution”
“Changpeng Zhao ignores US law… avoids regulations”
Requests to the court, such as fines and permanent ban on trade
Guide to Using a VPN to Avoid Spying
Instructions for using the messenger app ‘Signal’
Binance “Invest a lot in the US… ‘4’”
The coin market is also ‘shaken’…return the recent rise
3. Performance
◆(loaded) Walgreens/McCormick
Walgreens (WBA) earnings announcement
Sales of 34.9 billion, EPS of $1.16
Demand for coronavirus vaccine has declined
higher-than-expected sales
Sales of the clothing division exceeded 1.6 billion dollars
30% growth in primary care services
Maintain earnings guidance
EPS between $4.45 and $4.65 this year
McCormick (MKC) earnings announcement
Sales of 1.57 billion, EPS of $0.59
McCormick announces cost reductions from February
“Reduced impact of China’s corona, increased growth”
2023 earnings guidance maintained
Suggested sales growth of 5-7%
Semiconductor Micron after market close
Luxurious leggings Lululemon also pays attention
4. Report
◆City “Brazilian interest rate cut favorable”
Stoneco ‘buy’ opinion, target price of $13
“New management restructuring positive”
Interest rate cut expected from November..current 13.75%
Stocks -2% this year…down 44% last year
400,000 customers.. Profit conversion worth looking forward to
◆BOA “Revenue outlook positive”
Upgrade to Paramount ‘Buy’
“If M&A comes out, there will be many original buyers… at least 4”
+23% this year..”Strong asset portfolio”
“There are concerns about the transition to streaming, but
Increased likelihood of asset sale
◆ Morgan Stanley “Strong fundamentals, earnings expectations”
Selected as ‘Best Company’ by Emerson Electric
“Basic physical strength.. Strong risk compensation possible”
“Liquefied Natural Gas-Hydrogen Expectations”
“Avoid overspending on National Instruments”
Interest in the second bid.. Target price of $96
New York = Correspondent Jeong So-ram ram@hankyung.com
