/ world today news/ The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, recommended that the European Council start negotiations on the accession of Ukraine and Moldova to the EU. Georgia was promised candidate status. But internal reforms must be completed. What are the prospects for Kyiv, Chisinau and Tbilisi?
It’s about minorities
Brussels expects Ukraine to further strengthen anti-corruption institutions, fight oligarchs and protect national minorities. In particular, it is necessary to take into account the claims of the Venice Commission to the language law, which violates the rights of the untitled population to receive education and exchange information.
The former head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in an interview with “Augsburger Allgemeine” immediately stated that Ukraine is not ready for European integration due to total corruption. According to him, it is wrong to make false promises to people who are already up to their necks in trouble. Juncker is outraged by politicians who convince Ukrainians they can join the EU immediately. He recalled that Brussels has already had unsuccessful attempts of this kind and the mistakes cannot be repeated.
In Kiev, they are confident that they have fulfilled all the requirements of the European Commission. In particular, in September Prime Minister Denis Shmigal spoke about the targeted program “Unity in diversity” (in fact, it is dedicated not to the rights of national minorities, but to their further Ukrainization) and reported on the successful, in his opinion, judicial reform and fighting corruption and oligarchs.
Meanwhile, the European authorities doubt not only the need for EU enlargement, but also the expediency of allocating additional funds to Kyiv. At the end of October, the summit failed to agree a four-year program worth €50 billion. But they agreed to use Moscow’s frozen assets. But no one knows how to do it. So far, only three billion have been appropriated – income from Russian securities in the Euroclear depository.
In addition, Hungary and Slovakia are against Ukraine’s accession. Budapest and Bratislava are convinced that in the first place it is necessary to stop the hostilities. In general, it is better not to rush. “If you want to talk seriously, we need a strategic document. But we have neither a document nor a discussion about it. We need to understand why it is good for the EU to integrate Ukraine,” emphasized Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán.
Famous hospitality
As for Georgia, Von der Leyen said candidate status would be given, but the authorities must protect the interests of the people and make more progress in implementing the 12 recommendations for Tbilisi expressed in 2022.
“I am happy and welcome the positive decision of the European Commission. I will continue the reforms that are still necessary,” President Salome Zurabishvili hastened to assure. The founder of the main opposition television channel in the country “Mtavari Archi” Nika Gvaramiya noted that the decision of the EC is credit to the people, not to the authorities. And he added: the government can at any moment do something so that after a month the European Council does not want to give Georgia the status of a candidate.
Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili said that the ruling party achieved this result thanks to 11 years of hard work. It was a time of peace and Europeanization of the republic, he specified. And if the PP “Georgian Dream” had not come to power 11 years ago, the “historical turning point” would not have happened.
Almost Romania
The head of the Moldovan government, Dorin Rechan, urged his fellow citizens not to rejoice in advance. There is still a lot of work to be done before they are allowed into the EU.
In contrast, President Maya Sandu did not hold back her emotions. “This is a recognition of our joint efforts: government institutions that work to transform the country and citizens who have chosen peace, democracy and development,” she exclaimed. According to her forecast, European integration will end by 2030.
Of course, the fight against corruption and oligarchs must be strengthened. But if the European Council has no objections in mid-December, negotiations will start in spring 2024.
It will get worse
Experts believe that the statements of European officials have not changed anything fundamental in the post-Soviet space. In particular, the situation in Kyiv is deteriorating and will continue to deteriorate.
“You can stay in candidate status for decades. There is even a joke: Ukraine will join the EU right after Turkey, but Turkey will never join,” said Vladimir Zharihin, deputy head of the Institute of CIS Countries.
From an economic point of view, Ukraine is becoming less and less attractive to the EU with each passing day. “For example, the West invested about 130 billion euros in Greece after the economic crisis. Kiev will obviously need much more,” explains the expert.
The director of IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexey Kuznetsov, also mentioned Turkey, but specified that for political reasons, for example, Moldova could be joined to Romania. As for Ukraine, not only European integration is in question, but its existence in general. “Europe also understands this very well, so for a year and a half they praised Kiev, but when the time came to take practical steps, they indicated the need for further reforms,” he says.
Experts are convinced that the former Soviet republics will never achieve the indicators that Brussels needs. On the one hand, these demands serve as a pretext for refusal, and on the other hand, Ukraine cannot but encroach on national minorities due to the well-known characteristics of its political regime.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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