Bitcoin surges 5% as approval rating for coin-loving Trump rises[코인브리핑]

Former US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances during a campaign rally in Prescott Valley, Arizona on the 13th (local time). 2024.10.14 ⓒ AFP=News1 ⓒ News1 Reporter Woo Dong-myeong

Bitcoin surges due to rising approval ratings for coin-loving Trump and disappointment with China’s economic stimulus package

(Seoul = News 1) Reporter Jihyun Kim = Bitcoin, a virtual asset (cryptocurrency), is disappointed with China’s economic stimulus package and the approval rating of Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump, who maintains a friendly attitude toward the blockchain industry, is rising, Bitcoin spot It soared up to 5% thanks to the net inflow of exchange traded funds (ETFs).

According to Upbit on the 15th, the price of Bitcoin stood at 88.6 million won as of 8:40 am on this day, up 4.6% compared to the same time the previous day.

Bitcoin rose by about 2.2% in one hour starting at 12 PM the previous day and appears to be maintaining its upward trend to this day.

Regarding the background to Bitcoin’s rise, Bloomberg predicted, “Disappointment with China’s economic stimulus package and rising Trump approval ratings may lead to Bitcoin’s strength this month.” According to PolyMarket, candidate Trump’s probability of winning was 54.8% as of today, ahead of candidate Harris, who had 44.8%.

Caroline Mauron, founder of Orbit Markets, a liquidity provider, said, “The market has regarded the capital flow from Bitcoin to the Chinese stock market as a negative factor in the virtual asset market. Accordingly, the somewhat disappointing economic stimulus package recently introduced by the Chinese government. “This can be seen as good news for Bitcoin,” he said.

Benjamin Sellermayer, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Magnet Capital, a digital asset management company, said, “Recent opinion polls show that former U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating is increasing,” adding, “It will act as a big positive for the market and lead to a rise in virtual asset prices. “Favorable news, such as Mt. Gox’s decision to extend the bond repayment period, will also be received more positively,” he analyzed.

The net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF the previous day also added strength to Bitcoin’s rise. According to data from financial information platform Farside Investor, Bitwise’s Bitcoin spot ETF (BITB) recorded a net inflow of $100 million (approximately KRW 136 billion) on the 14th (local time). This is the third-largest net inflow since the launch of the ETF. There was also a net inflow of $5.7 million (KRW 7.7 billion) into the Franklin Templeton Bitcoin Spot ETF (EZBC) and $37.8 million (KRW 51.4 billion) into Grayscale GBTC. Grayscale net inflow is also the highest since May 3.

On the 15th, investment sentiment for virtual assets is at the ‘greed’ stage. According to Alternative.Me, a virtual asset data provider, today’s crypto greed and fear index is 65 points, down 17 points from the previous day.

The closer the index is to 0, the closer investment sentiment is to extreme fear, and the closer it is to 100, the more extreme optimism it is.

According to CryptoQuant, a blockchain data analysis company, as of today, the net deposit and withdrawal volume of exchanges is higher than the average figure over the past seven days.

In general, the net deposit/withdrawal amount is calculated by subtracting the amount withdrawn from the amount of coins deposited into the exchange. In the case of spot exchanges, the higher the value, the higher the pressure to sell coins, and in the case of futures exchanges, it is interpreted as increasing volatility risk.

Galaxy Research: “Harris’ virtual asset policy is more favorable than Biden’s, but lags behind Trump’s”

An analysis showed that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ virtual asset-related policies are more friendly than those of current U.S. President Biden, but less friendly than those of Republican candidate Trump.

According to Cointelegraph, Galaxy Research diagnosed with regard to the upcoming presidential election in November, “Candidate Kamala Harris is more friendly to the virtual asset (industry) than President Joe Biden, but is not as industry-friendly as her rival, Donald Trump.”

Candidate Harris previously promised to significantly improve the U.S. virtual asset business environment with new technologies such as blockchain, but has a less friendly stance than candidate Trump on issues such as taxes (imposition of higher capital gains tax).

Blackrock CEO: “Bitcoin is an asset class in itself… The virtual asset market will continue to grow.”

CEO Larry Fink mentioned that he has a positive view of the outlook for the virtual asset market beyond Bitcoin.

CEO Larry Fink said in the third quarter conference call on the 14th (local time), “I don’t think it will make a big difference no matter who wins the presidential election,” but added, “However, I think the use of digital assets will increase.”

He further emphasized, “We are discussing with institutions around the world how to think about digital assets and how to allocate assets,” adding, “We believe that Bitcoin is an asset class in itself.”

He continued, “Bitcoin is an alternative to raw materials such as gold, and I believe that the role of Ethereum as a blockchain can be greatly expanded,” and added, “Meanwhile, I believe that it is a matter of liquidity and transparency rather than regulation as a problem in this industry.”

He added, “In the past, the mortgage market also developed very slowly at first, but as analysis and data accumulated, the market grew bigger. I believe the digital asset market will follow a similar trajectory.”

“Global liquidity flood due to interest rate cuts will lead to a rise in the virtual asset market”

Analysis has shown that increased global liquidity as China’s economic stimulus package and central banks in major countries cut interest rates will lead to an explosive rise in the virtual asset market.

According to DL News, David Brickell, head of international affairs at FRNT Financial, a Canadian-based institutional virtual asset platform, said, “We cannot overlook the macroeconomic background in which global liquidity has increased as major central banks have cut interest rates, and a very large player called China has even launched a stimulus bazooka.” “No,” he said. “Under the current situation, there are many factors that could lead to an explosive rise in virtual assets.”

He analyzed, “In the short term, virtual asset funds flowed to the Chinese stock market, but eventually the liquidity flood will contribute to the rise in the price of Bitcoin in particular.”

Regarding the recent market situation, “the so-called ‘uptober’, which usually means that the virtual asset market rises in October, may have taken the wrong first step,” but added, “As geopolitical tensions intensified, the initial momentum weakened and negative supply dynamics compounded. “he said. However, most of the October gains occurred in the second half of the year, and Bitcoin typically shows good gains ahead of the US election,” he added.

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