It’s been over a week since bitcoin (BTC) lost traction at $44,000, partly due to mounting tensions in Ukraine. Last Sunday, the bitcoin price nor stick to $40,000 and on Wednesday evening Putin made his speech and invaded eastern Ukraine.
Nearly all (risky) financial markets were hit hard and the bitcoin price plummeted to a low around $34,500. It was the lowest price since the price fell to $33,000 a month earlier.
Bitcoin is starting to recover
Still, many markets, including bitcoin, were suddenly able to recover strongly half a day later. Bitcoin then resurfaced above $38,000, but then struggled to break through $39,000 as well.
On Friday evening, the price made an attempt and briefly touched $39,400, but was rejected and dipped to $38,700. However, the price could then bounce and then rose to a high of $39,800. However, bitcoin was again rejected there and started to fall sharply again.
The price found support around $39,000, but also fell through this and then fell even faster. Bitcoin came in at $38,450 last night, but then started to steadily recover. This morning, bitcoin has been gaining momentum, reaching $39,400 at the time of writing Binance and €34,900 on Battle† This means that the price is slightly above the price of 24 hours ago, but is still 3% below the price of a week ago.
More volatility to be expected
However, it is the weekend and then the trading volume is very low. A possible outbreak could therefore be a so-called fake out and should therefore be taken with a grain of salt.
As tensions continue to rise in Ukraine and now news is coming out that Russian banks to be cut off from SWIFT, there is a very good chance that we will see even more volatility in the financial markets when the markets reopen tomorrow. There is also still a lot of fear and uncertainty in the crypto market:
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 26 — Fear
Current price: $39,087 pic.twitter.com/Yg3fPW0vcg— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index 🇺🇦 (@BitcoinFear) February 27, 2022
That said, see the on-chain data is still very bullish from. Analysts show on the basis of the following data that investors are still holding their BTC firmly:
61.7% of the #Bitcoin supply has not moved in at least 1 year. Only 3 months ago, this metric was at 54.5%.
The all-time high record is 63.4%, set a month before we begin our massive move from 10k to 40k. #Crypto #cryptocurrency pic.twitter.com/kGLfcdCNDn
— Plan©️ (@TheRealPlanC) February 26, 2022
#Bitcoin maturing to 3m+ is occurring at a rate of more than 340k $ BTC per month.
This is 13.5x more than issuance to miners 🟪
I expect these coins will become LTH supply over coming months🟦
As I have said many times, #Bitcoin supply dynamics remain remarkably constructive pic.twitter.com/8yb4Dg7qUV
— _Checkmate.btc 🔑⚡🦬🌋checkonchain.com🌋 (@_Checkmatey_) February 25, 2022
The market is speculating that if bitcoin climbs out of this range, sentiment will return soon bullish and lead to retail FOMO. In that case, however, the price must first break through the following resistance zones and due to the great uncertainty in the market that may take a while. It is possible that bitcoin will be stuck in the current range for even longer at first.
If $ BTC followed the same price action off the Jan 24 low it could look something like this First resistance at $41,500 followed by $43,400 and $44,800, which would confirm a sexy double bottom with confluence at a key fib level / 61.8 off the Dec 27 high https://t.co/RZ9BhDB6Wy
— Decentrader (@decentrader) February 26, 2022
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