- Arthur Hayes predicted a decline in Bitcoin prices below $35,000. Among the main factors are the policy of the Federal Reserve and military conflicts in the Middle East.
- Other crypto experts disagreed. Their expectations range from $20,000 to $60,000.
The first cryptocurrency risks falling below $35,000 due to global macroeconomic and political turmoil. This was stated by ex-CEO of BitMEX Arthur Hayes in a new essay. Yellen or Talkin.
Hayes identified several factors that will negatively affect the price of Bitcoin:
- Fed policy and “excessive” inflation;
- conflicts in the Middle East, including clashes in Yemen;
- US presidential elections.
Risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, are waiting for a “turnaround” from the Fed in March of this year – a reduction in the interest rate should lead to an influx of liquidity back into the market, the expert noted.
However, according to Hayes, due to the current political environment, shipping costs may increase, leading to a jump in prices in the third or fourth quarter. At the same time, the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell will try to mitigate the consequences:
“A moderate rise in inflation due to rising shipping costs could be amplified by rate cuts and a resumption of quantitative easing. The market has not yet appreciated this fact, unlike Bitcoin.”
The former head of BitMEX emphasized that the risks from fighting inflation are surpassed only by a potential financial crisis.
Taking these factors into account, the first cryptocurrency may correct by 30% from the local maximum of $49,000 to $33,600.
“Bitcoin is building support between $30,000 and $35,000. That’s why I bought the March 29, 2024 strike put at $35,000,” Hayes added.
He said levels below $35,000 now represent a “buy-on-the-dip opportunity.”
Other forecasts
According to the survey Deutsche Bank Among its 2,000 clients, more than a third of respondents expect Bitcoin to fall below $20,000 by the end of this year. At the same time, 15% predict the price from $45,000 to $70,000.
Deutsche Bank respondents’ forecasts. Data: Bloomberg.
Bank analysts Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace believe that spot Bitcoin ETFs will “expand the institutionalization” of the asset. However, the study found that most inflows into exchange-traded funds came from retail investors.
Crypto influencer and creator of the Stock-to-Flow model under the pseudonym PlanB took a more optimistic position. In his opinion, the first cryptocurrency has already consolidated around $40,000 and is preparing to grow by 50% – up to $60,000.
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Bitcoin consolidating a bit around 40k, gaining strength for the next +50% jump towards 60k pic.twitter.com/9BMnGUKd5t
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 23, 2024
Trader Robert Lucas noted that the weekly Bitcoin cycle has already reached a local maximum. If a fall begins, the asset’s quotes will drop to lows by mid-February and begin to recover in March, the expert believes.
Technical analyst and head of Factor LLC Peter Brandt noted that the price of digital gold “has worked out an expanding triangle with a right right angle with a cancellation [движения] above $42,400, confirming the bearish breakout.”
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General rule
Weekly chart more reliable than daily chart
Daily chart more reliable than intraday chart
Chart patterns fail more often than they work
Bitcoin has completed a right angled broadening triangle
Negated above 42,400 $BTC pic.twitter.com/oLI3rFZOHN— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) January 22, 2024
Earlier, Bitfinex experts pointed out the risks of a further fall in Bitcoin to $36,000. According to the company’s report, bearish sentiment prevails in the market.
An analyst under the pseudonym Ali studied the price patterns of the last two cycles of the first cryptocurrency and also allowed the coin’s quotes to decline.
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2024-01-24 14:48:47
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