There are 106 days left for Bitcoin’s fourth halving. In addition to focusing on the adoption of Bitcoin spot ETF, analysts Ali Martinez The halving is also a bullish statement worth paying attention to, with gains of 400%-6000% in the past.
(Previous summary: Bankless: ETF, halving, interest rate cut, where will Bitcoin go next?)
(Background supplement: Sniper》Bitcoin halving countdown, how to capture PoW track Alpha at low cost?)
The cryptocurrency market will not only focus on the passage of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the first half of 2024;According to Bitcoin Block Half data, as of writing, there are only 106 days left before Bitcoin’s fourth halving.Although halving does not usually trigger an immediate rise in Bitcoin and takes several months to a year and a half to ferment, analysts Ali Martinez That’s a bullish statement worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin halving countdown
Analyst: Past gains of 400%-6,000%
Every 210,000 Bitcoin blocks, about once every 4 years, the block reward received by miners will be reduced by half. This event called “halving” will lead to a 50% reduction in the income of miners who verify Bitcoin transactions. It is currently expected that It is estimated that the fourth halving will take place on April 22, 2024, when the Bitcoin block reward will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Analyst Martinez pointed out in its analysis, historical data shows that Bitcoin’s halving narrative always brings about a sharp increase in its price, which has become the market consensus. He said:
No matter which way the Bitcoin ETF goes, don’t forget there’s another bullish narrative coming this year: Bitcoin’s halving!
Historically, this event has been a catalyst for significant price increases. One only has to look at the percentage increases in Bitcoin’s price after the past few halvings to see this.
Looking at the one-year period after the first halving, the price of Bitcoin experienced a 6,000% increase. After the second and third halving, the price increase of Bitcoin within one year fell to approximately 400%.
Bankless: The impact of halving will be reduced
Can the market expect that by mid-April, the price of Bitcoin will also experience a rise of more than 400%? In this regard, Bankless analyst Jack Inabinet released the “Where Bitcoin Goes Next“The analysis mentioned that although Bitcoin halving has historically brought about a bullish trend, this does not mean that future halvings will inevitably lead to price increases.
He gave the example that just like Ethereum reduced its issuance after the merger, but failed to drive the price upward in the following months (the ETH/BTC ratio has fallen by more than 30% since then), this time Bitcoin halved A reduction in issuance is also not guaranteed to have a positive impact on prices.
While reducing selling pressure by reducing block rewards will undoubtedly have some bullish impact on Bitcoin prices, the impact of this halving is likely to be significantly muted compared to past halvings. Investors in the market need not be surprised if the expected post-halving price increase pattern does not materialize.
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2024-01-07 05:32:35
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