[시사저널e=유길연 기자] Bitcoin continued to fluctuate significantly this week (22nd to 28th) and succeeded in rising slightly compared to last week. After the approval of the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), profit-taking items were released to the market and fell significantly, but it is interpreted that it rebounded again as the selling trend subsided. There are predictions that the market may see an upward trend again due to the influence of the ‘halving’ scheduled for April.
According to CoinMarketCap, a global virtual asset market site, on the 28th, Bitcoin recorded $42,126 (about 56.36 million won) at 9 am on this day. It is a 1.19% increase compared to a week ago. Bitcoin plummeted from the beginning of this week on the 22nd, and fell to $38,570 on the morning of the 24th. Afterwards, it recovered slightly and was traded around $40,000. However, on the 27th, it suddenly rose significantly and reached the $42,000 level.
The reason Bitcoin fell early this week is interpreted as the profit-taking selling that followed the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF. This is because after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided to approve the spot ETF, selling volume poured into asset management company Grayscale’s product account.
Grayscale purchased Bitcoin on behalf of institutional investors through the Bitcoin Trust Product (GBTC) until the spot ETF was approved. However, since GBTC is a trust-type product, it was traded at a discount to Bitcoin, but after converting to a spot ETF, the selling process continued because it could receive the correct price. Investors invested the funds they took out of GBTC into other Bitcoin spot ETFs with lower fees than Grayscale. The amount of funds flowing out of GBTC in 9 days after listing the spot ETF in the United States amounted to $4.4 billion (approximately KRW 5.8872 trillion).
As Bitcoin continued to fail, negative perceptions increased in the market. According to the results of a survey recently released by Deutsche Bank, more than one-third of individual investors in the U.S., Europe, and the U.K. predicted that the price of Bitcoin would fall below $20,000 by the end of the year. The survey was conducted on 2,000 individual investors in three countries from the 15th to the 19th.
However, it is analyzed that Bitcoin has also rebounded again as the Grayscale account sell-off is almost over. JP Morgan researcher Nikolaos Panigirzogl said, “GBTC selling has concluded and most of the resulting downward pressure has likely disappeared.”
Bitcoin, which has successfully rebounded, is likely to rise significantly again due to the effect of the halving scheduled for April this year. Bitcoin’s total supply is limited to 21 million, so it undergoes a halving period in which mining rewards are reduced by half. Accordingly, during halving, the supply of Bitcoin decreases and the price tends to rise. Typically, a half-life occurs every four years. During the previous three halvings, it rose 8450% in 2012, 290% in 2016, and 560% in 2020.
Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of U.S. hedge fund Skybridge, said Bitcoin could exceed $170,000 in the mid to late next year due to the impact of the halving. He predicted at the ‘Reuters Global Market Forum’ recently held in Davos, Switzerland, “If the price of Bitcoin is approximately $45,000 at the time of halving, it will be $170,000 by mid-to-late next year.” He added, “Whatever the price was on the day of the April halving, it will reach a price multiplied by 4 in the next 18 months.”
2024-01-28 02:43:13
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