Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week, as expected, with a red candle† The price already fell to $39,000 before the weekend and fell even deeper yesterday morning. Bitcoin came in at $38,250 yesterday afternoon, but was then able to recover briefly. Bitcoin then made a small bounce and rose to $39,350, but by midnight the price started to fall sharply again.
Not the type of weekly close you’d like to see but what do you expect in a global market that is currently struggling
Bearish sure, but I’m neutral until this breaks lower – currently I sit flat majority of positions and hoping for some clarity in the coming days/weeks pic.twitter.com/kgjrFrV7Tr
– Rager 📈 (@Rager) March 7, 2022
From bitcoin price came in as low as $37,750 this morning, down about 4%. The price then recovered slightly, but bitcoin did not go beyond $38,200. This morning, bitcoin dipped below $38,000 again and the price is at $37,950 at the time of writing Binance and €35,000 on Battle.
More volatility is expected
The ever-escalating situation in Ukraine is currently holding all financial markets in its grip. Stock markets are highly volatile, while commodity and energy prices are soaring that people are concerned about a possible recession. Meanwhile, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) remains closed again today. Because bitcoin still has a very high correlation with (risky) assets, the drop over the weekend does not seem to bode well for the stock markets. More volatility is expected.
Analysts become uncertain, but believe in bottom
The enormous uncertainty ensures that even the bitcoin analysts are increasingly bearish become. Confidence that this is another mid-cycle correction is waning. Despite this, there is still a lot of confidence that the price is hanging around a possible bottom. On-chain data seems to support that. Long-term owners are holding onto their bitcoins tightly and the market seems to be in an accumulation phase despite all the fear. However, the enormous uncertainty can cause bitcoin to dip even deeper at first.
Accumulation. $ BTC https://t.co/Hey8AnYANP pic.twitter.com/HZR9ubJwwz
— Credible Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) March 6, 2022
75.8% of the #Bitcoin supply has not moved in at least 6 months.
Supply Last Active:
🟣 6 months – 2 years: 31.3%
🔵 2 years – 7 years: 25%
🟢 7 years+: 19.5%That’s just under 14.4 million BTC that are in the wallets of strong hands… pic.twitter.com/ELYePs752x
— On-Chain College (@OnChainCollege) March 7, 2022
How deep can the bitcoin price fall?
US inflation figures will be released next Thursday with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will follow next week where the Federal Reserve may announce the percentage by which it will raise interest rates. There are also great concerns about this.
Should the $38,000 not hold, support may still be found around $37,000 and $37,500. Otherwise it may be the area between 100 weeks exponential moving average (EMA), around $36,000, and the 100 weeks simple moving average (SMA), around $33,650, which we need to keep in mind. Some market participants even fear a drop below $30,000, like last summer. Or even a drop all the way to the 200-week SMA, around $20,000. At least for now, bitcoin is holding up better than that.
This #Bitcoin cycle, each wave has been longer than the last. Wave 4 now exhausting participants to the point where we are in a technical uptrend with onchain data showing a macro bottom!
You couldn’t ask for a better wave 5 setup, the only question is when we can draw the line. pic.twitter.com/6XY10R0iVj
— Steve ⚡ (@decodejar) March 6, 2022
#Bitcoin Daily RSI is forming a huge Symmetrical Triangle that began when we hit $33k in January!!! 🚨 pic.twitter.com/DDJZvyLHHq
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) March 7, 2022
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