On November 5, the crypto ecosystem will eagerly await the results of the American presidential elections. The reason: the possibility of seeing the price of Bitcoin (BTC) soar or plummet depending on the victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the race for the White House.
Bitcoin price at $92,000 according to one of Bitwise executives
Bitcoin (BTC) at $92,000? This is what Jeff Park predictshead of Bitwise alpha strategies, in the event that Donald Trump wins the American presidential elections scheduled for November 5.
On X, Jeff Park explained why he thought the price of Bitcoin could soar if the Republican candidate wins:
The Bitcoin price chart against Donald Trump’s odds (via Polymarket) from August 15 to October 20 highlights variations [du cours du BTC], especially when Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were neck and neck. By applying a mathematical model of the risk arbitrage type, I predict that a Donald Trump victory could push the price of BTC to around $92,000.
Charting $BTC price against Trump’s odds (via @Polymarket) from 8/15 to 10/20 reveals some wild swings—particularly when Harris and Trump took turns leading. By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000
Take that as you will pic.twitter.com/OGy8M3Vju1
— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) October 22, 2024
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This prediction from the Bitwise framework adds to all those already optimistic about the price of Bitcoin in the event that Donald Trump becomes President of the United States again.
Thus, Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia, 3 analysts from the research and brokerage company Bernstein had shared their analysis, suggesting that « BTC would reach a new high between $80,000 and $90,000, » if Donald Trump were to win the elections.
Conversely, these analysts were less enthusiastic in the event of Kamala Harris’ victory. If this situation were to arise, “ we believe that in the short term, the price of Bitcoin will drop significantly before stabilizing around $40,000, » they explain.
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A BTC pump on the announcement of a Donald Trump victory, but what will it be in the long term?
However, members of the crypto community do not share the same opinion. So the billionaire Mark Cubansupporter of Kamala Harris, thinks that if Donald Trump were elected, the cryptocurrency markets “ would probably climb for a few weeks before coming back down ».
According to him, the economic measures promised by the former president of the United States are « highly inflationary, which could hamper the evolution of Bitcoin prices in the long term ».
Throughout the electoral campaign, Donald Trump did not hesitate to advocate for cryptocurrenciespromising to make the United States the “ world capital of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies ».
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His proposals also aim to separate from Gary Gensler, the current chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, who according to the Republican candidate, would put obstacles in the way of the development of this ecosystem.
In the majority of traditional polls, Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump by a fraction. However, on the decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket, the trend is clearly in favor of the Republican candidate which surpasses its Republican rival by almost 20 points.
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